Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2022-11-27
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Roundtable0.666670.666677.0000-3.000084.00032121
2Sagarin Recent0.682540.6290312.19602.5363271.4416343203923
3Talisman Red0.714290.6129012.40412.7524287.6096345183824
4Laz Index0.698410.5967712.30413.2756283.1766344193725
5Dunkel Index0.741940.5901612.21795.0385289.9076246163625
6Logistic Regression0.682540.5806513.78160.8441344.4676343203626
7PerformanZ Ratings0.761900.5645213.95063.8579337.0446348153527
8Stephen Kerns0.714290.5645212.47464.2984301.0576345183527
9Loudsound.org0.682540.5614012.03170.5714262.0276343203225
10Catherwood Ratings0.666670.5593212.96834.8095300.9196342213326
11Least Squares w/ HFA0.682540.5483915.07442.9840389.3636343203428
12Born Power Index0.698410.5483912.79133.6278292.0336344193428
13Sagarin Ratings0.682540.5322612.28922.6540281.0926343203329
14Massey Ratings0.634920.5322612.59682.5317300.4626340233329
15Sagarin Points0.666670.5322612.44732.3311290.3026342213329
16Donchess Inference0.698410.5322612.60953.3587285.8496344193329
17Laffaye RWP0.714290.5322612.59703.7068303.6216345183329
18DP Dwiggins0.730160.5172412.49211.5714281.2786346173028
19Pi-Ratings Mean0.682540.5161312.62062.9511298.6626343203230
20Keeper0.714290.5161313.07714.3981301.2746345183230
21Waywardtrends0.666670.5082012.73374.2327311.3126342213130
22Versus Sports Simulator0.682540.5000012.51683.0298291.3906343203131
23David Harville0.666670.5000012.51562.7806288.5996342213131
24Dave Congrove0.698410.5000012.88433.1049302.1126344193131
25FEI Projections0.730160.5000012.87940.6571308.8646346173131
26Edward Kambour0.682540.4838712.74652.8278300.2836343203032
27Beck Elo0.730160.4838712.63984.6303308.2726346173032
28Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.4754112.86982.8286304.4236342212932
29Pigskin Index0.714290.4745812.63513.5878297.6766345182831
30Massey Consensus0.698410.4677413.39813.7721321.8296344192933
31Payne Predict0.698410.4677412.93132.8221295.8746344192933
32Billingsley0.698410.4677412.88384.0111301.3516344192933
33ESPN FPI0.698410.4677412.80413.7095300.9886344192933
34Daniel Curry Index0.682540.4677413.43562.4679311.5396343202933
35TeamRankings.com0.682540.4590212.80002.7556297.5856343202833
36Brent Craig0.709680.4590213.09664.5295309.6946244182833
37Cleanup Hitter0.555560.4590214.56352.3095353.6576335282833
38Linear Regression0.682540.4516113.13893.2544311.6606343202834
39Bihl System0.698410.4516112.72303.5141297.9116344192834
40System Average0.682540.4516112.47783.2698287.9246343202834
41System Median0.698410.4516112.55633.2614290.5086344192834
42PI-Rate Bias0.666670.4354812.94022.8894306.0286342212735
43Howell0.698410.4237313.52403.8890317.9136344192534
44Payne Power Ratings0.714290.4193512.73402.9410290.6276345182636
45Dokter Entropy0.698410.4193513.08253.4749305.3046344192636
46Line (opening)0.698410.4181812.56353.1667283.5836344192332
47Stat Fox0.666670.4166713.04764.4444310.4486342212535
48Sagarin Golden Mean0.682540.4032312.69702.8808299.6716343202537
49Payne W/L0.650790.4032312.94833.0063303.1676341222537
50Computer Adjusted Line0.682540.3939412.51592.9444285.0656343201320
51Moore Power Ratings0.698410.3871012.82872.9792281.9426344192438
52ARGH Power Ratings0.730160.3833312.82143.4881292.6096346172337
53Line (updated)0.682540.2916712.50792.9206284.452634320717
54Line (Midweek)0.6825412.40482.8333281.829634320
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases