ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Last Week

Through 2018-01-09

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Points	0.67500	0.69231	12.9743	1.4812	299.521	40	27	13	27	12
2	ThePowerRank.com	0.60000	0.69231	12.7175	1.2825	288.079	40	24	16	27	12
3	TeamRankings.com	0.65000	0.69231	12.9775	1.7325	298.291	40	26	14	27	12
4	Linear Regression	0.60000	0.66667	13.5300	2.2980	319.335	40	24	16	26	13
5	ComPughter Ratings	0.63158	0.64865	13.9800	2.4611	348.728	38	24	14	24	13
6	Talisman Red	0.65625	0.64516	12.9741	0.5578	300.058	32	21	11	20	11
7	The Sports Cruncher	0.63636	0.62500	12.9300	-1.3730	284.107	33	21	12	20	12
8	Ashby AccuRatings	0.67500	0.62162	13.1750	1.1755	302.887	40	27	13	23	14
9	Sagarin Ratings	0.72500	0.61538	12.9975	1.2450	304.097	40	29	11	24	15
10	Edward Kambour	0.67500	0.61538	13.2163	0.9543	296.423	40	27	13	24	15
11	System Average	0.62500	0.61538	13.3943	1.4342	309.432	40	25	15	24	15
12	Stat Fox	0.57500	0.61111	13.8748	1.2258	300.837	40	23	17	22	14
13	System Median	0.62500	0.60526	13.2865	1.3195	308.260	40	25	15	23	15
14	Bihl System	0.60526	0.59459	13.8158	1.2221	334.578	38	23	15	22	15
15	Computer Adjusted Line	0.60000	0.59259	13.5125	0.8625	295.425	40	24	16	16	11
16	Born Power Index	0.50000	0.58974	14.1448	1.4303	334.187	40	20	20	23	16
17	PerformanZ Ratings	0.60000	0.58974	14.0363	0.7233	339.135	40	24	16	23	16
18	Atomic Football	0.65000	0.56757	13.0000	1.4500	294.147	40	26	14	21	16
19	Howell	0.60000	0.56757	13.8123	1.7627	356.027	40	24	16	21	16
20	Line (updated)	0.60000	0.56522	13.5000	0.8000	293.459	40	24	16	13	10
21	Donchess Inference	0.65000	0.56410	13.2233	1.3682	308.508	40	26	14	22	17
22	Laz Index	0.57500	0.56410	13.6638	1.2807	318.624	40	23	17	22	17
23	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.67500	0.56410	13.1620	1.4570	304.601	40	27	13	22	17
24	Moore Power Ratings	0.52500	0.56410	14.1400	0.6920	323.252	40	21	19	22	17
25	Loudsound.org	0.64103	0.55556	14.0769	0.5385	340.993	39	25	14	20	16
26	Stephen Kerns	0.57500	0.55263	14.3275	2.8775	350.243	40	23	17	21	17
27	FEI Projections	0.65000	0.55263	13.1500	2.2500	299.673	40	26	14	21	17
28	DP Dwiggins	0.55000	0.55263	14.2498	2.3498	368.360	40	22	18	21	17
29	Liam Bressler	0.47368	0.54054	13.5866	1.4608	307.963	38	18	20	20	17
30	Dokter Entropy	0.57500	0.53846	13.5815	1.3425	316.082	40	23	17	21	18
31	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.60000	0.53846	15.7933	4.5727	416.573	40	24	16	21	18
32	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70000	0.53846	13.7000	1.4125	338.006	40	28	12	21	18
33	Payne Power Ratings	0.67500	0.53846	13.6138	1.0353	337.626	40	27	13	21	18
34	Dave Congrove	0.60000	0.53846	13.2933	1.9327	284.087	40	24	16	21	18
35	Super List	0.67500	0.53846	13.9545	2.5890	366.486	40	27	13	21	18
36	Laffaye RWP	0.62500	0.53846	13.7765	0.9945	323.429	40	25	15	21	18
37	ESPN FPI	0.62500	0.53846	13.3940	1.1685	299.311	40	25	15	21	18
38	Massey Ratings	0.65000	0.53846	13.5320	1.5345	315.007	40	26	14	21	18
39	NutShell Sports	0.65000	0.53846	14.6210	1.6585	376.613	40	26	14	21	18
40	Sagarin Recent	0.60000	0.53846	13.5785	0.7330	324.817	40	24	16	21	18
41	Roundtable	0.61538	0.52632	14.1026	1.0256	343.204	39	24	15	20	18
42	Brent Craig	0.56410	0.52632	13.9582	2.5382	335.512	39	22	17	20	18
43	Lee Burdorf	0.48718	0.51351	14.8949	0.8077	346.899	39	19	20	19	18
44	Logistic Regression	0.60000	0.51282	14.3945	-0.9840	359.797	40	24	16	20	19
45	Billingsley	0.52500	0.51282	14.7808	0.3247	365.236	40	21	19	20	19
46	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.55000	0.51282	13.3575	1.8775	310.816	40	22	18	20	19
47	Keeper	0.62500	0.51282	13.9915	1.5740	324.742	40	25	15	20	19
48	Marsee	0.55000	0.47368	14.4500	1.5500	339.990	40	22	18	18	20
49	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.52500	0.46154	13.7425	2.0375	324.805	40	21	19	18	21
50	Beck Elo	0.57500	0.46154	13.6770	0.8750	322.358	40	23	17	18	21
51	Cleanup Hitter	0.52500	0.46154	15.4500	0.5750	335.942	40	21	19	18	21
52	Billingsley+	0.47500	0.46154	14.9725	0.5230	383.969	40	19	21	18	21
53	Daniel Curry Index	0.50000	0.46154	15.4815	1.7450	370.910	40	20	20	18	21
54	Catherwood Ratings	0.52500	0.44737	14.3250	1.2750	321.434	40	21	19	17	21
55	Massey Consensus	0.52500	0.41026	16.3817	1.5152	397.649	40	21	19	16	23
56	Dunkel Index	0.60000	0.41026	14.7320	1.6530	358.535	40	24	16	16	23
57	Line (opening)	0.45000	0.40741	14.0750	1.0750	323.871	40	18	22	11	16
58	Pigskin Index	0.47500	0.39474	14.7005	0.5505	356.405	40	19	21	15	23
59	PI-Rate Bias	0.50000	0.38462	13.7675	2.0475	325.636	40	20	20	15	24
60	Line (Midweek)	0.52500		13.7500	0.8000	309.047	40	21	19

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases