Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2013 Last Week

Through 2014-01-07
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Donchess Inference0.657140.6176512.6571236.3143523122113
2CPA Retro0.685710.6000011.6143186.8413524112114
3Covers.com0.542860.5714313.0343258.7333519162015
4Super List0.628570.5714313.7214260.1273522132015
5Beck Elo0.600000.5588213.4200240.9763521141915
6Logistic Regression0.657140.5428612.7369227.7343523121916
7Billingsley+0.542860.5428612.7066215.2143519161916
8Sportrends0.514290.5428613.7857270.0793518171916
9Massey *0.542860.5428613.1666256.5693519161916
10Daniel Curry Index0.500000.5263213.3000246.823201010109
11Sagarin Curve0.571430.5142913.4831243.5923520151817
12Linear Regression0.571430.5142913.9309278.5883520151817
13Bihl System0.600000.5142913.5014252.6353521141817
14Sagarin Predictor0.542860.5142913.5966259.8793519161817
15Edward Kambour0.600000.5142912.9940228.0783521141817
16Massey Ratings0.600000.5000013.2857239.2863521141515
17Regression-Based Analys0.628570.5000013.9143243.6293522131717
18Stephen Kerns0.485710.5000013.8343270.6943517181717
19Born Power Index0.542860.4857114.1800272.8483519161718
20DP Dwiggins0.628570.4857113.6857271.2293522131718
21Martien Maas0.600000.4857113.6283254.6343521141718
22Directorofinformation0.600000.4857113.7163261.7323521141718
23Wolfe *0.657140.4857113.4854263.2343523121718
24CPA Rankings0.571430.4857113.8794275.8323520151718
25Dunkel Index0.571430.4857113.7977289.5973520151718
26Anderson/Hester *0.571430.4857113.5497255.2613520151718
27Sagarin0.571430.4857113.4634245.7093520151718
28Line (updated)0.571430.4705913.3143240.38635201589
29Moore Power Ratings0.571430.4705913.5497245.5993520151618
30football.loudsound.org0.400000.4687514.4286291.2863514211517
31Tempo Free Gridiron0.485710.4571413.6571252.8003517181619
32Billingsley0.571430.4571413.9943282.5523520151619
33Brent Craig0.542860.4571414.3860299.0863519161619
34Compughter Ratings0.542860.4571413.8623272.9533519161619
35Massey Consensus0.600000.4571413.6080251.5833521141619
36Stat Fox0.514290.4545513.9714266.2563518171518
37Pigskin Index0.514290.4545513.2291232.4423518171518
38ARGH Power Ratings0.514290.4482814.3071285.3023518171316
39Catherwood Ratings0.600000.4411814.7143303.2863521141519
40Ted Thompson Avg0.571430.4285713.4831252.6543520151520
41Atomic Football0.628570.4285713.5637245.9923522131520
42PerformanZ Ratings0.485710.4285713.7603289.9323517181520
43Dokter Entropy0.514290.4285714.1689263.6713518171520
44NutShell Sports0.542860.4285715.0431328.1233519161520
45Keeper0.628570.4285713.8160264.2973522131520
46System Average0.571430.4285713.5506244.5583520151520
47System Median0.571430.4117613.6300247.9743520151420
48The Power Rank0.571430.4117613.2571233.2553520151420
49PointShare Ratings0.600000.4000013.4229238.8513521141421
50Laffaye RWP0.457140.4000015.0700331.5353516191421
51Laz Index0.571430.4000013.4817251.6453520151421
52Lee Burdorf0.514290.4000014.7829299.2643518171421
53PI-Rate Bias0.600000.4000014.1683270.9623521141421
54Payne Power Ratings0.571430.4000014.2377286.6133520151421
55Sagrin Pure Elo0.571430.4000014.4637285.8813520151421
56Fremeau FEI0.542860.3939414.2000280.2573519161320
57Line (opening)0.571430.3928613.3714239.1293520151117
58Least Squares w/ HFA0.542860.3823515.8583365.7323519161321
59Pi-Ratings Mean0.542860.3823514.8771303.9933519161321
60Computer Adjusted Line0.571430.3750013.3429240.171352015610
61Dave Congrove0.571430.3714314.0106260.9413520151322
62Ed Bemiss0.600000.3714313.7914258.5463521141322
63Pi-Rate Ratings0.628570.3714313.6657254.4613522131322
64Ashby AccuRatings0.628570.3636413.6857247.6293522131221
65Colley Rankings *0.485710.3428614.2406278.5853517181223
66Ted Thompson SPRS0.600000.3428613.5411244.5463521141223
67Laffaye XWP0.485710.3142916.3331383.9833517181124
68Marsee0.428570.3125015.1714319.2863515201022
69Howell0.441180.3030314.3379282.6603415191023
70Line (midweek)0.6285713.0714232.836352213
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases