ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2013 Last Week

Through 2014-01-07

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Donchess Inference	0.65714	0.61765	12.6571	236.314	35	23	12	21	13
2	CPA Retro	0.68571	0.60000	11.6143	186.841	35	24	11	21	14
3	Covers.com	0.54286	0.57143	13.0343	258.733	35	19	16	20	15
4	Super List	0.62857	0.57143	13.7214	260.127	35	22	13	20	15
5	Beck Elo	0.60000	0.55882	13.4200	240.976	35	21	14	19	15
6	Logistic Regression	0.65714	0.54286	12.7369	227.734	35	23	12	19	16
7	Billingsley+	0.54286	0.54286	12.7066	215.214	35	19	16	19	16
8	Sportrends	0.51429	0.54286	13.7857	270.079	35	18	17	19	16
9	Massey *	0.54286	0.54286	13.1666	256.569	35	19	16	19	16
10	Daniel Curry Index	0.50000	0.52632	13.3000	246.823	20	10	10	10	9
11	Sagarin Curve	0.57143	0.51429	13.4831	243.592	35	20	15	18	17
12	Linear Regression	0.57143	0.51429	13.9309	278.588	35	20	15	18	17
13	Bihl System	0.60000	0.51429	13.5014	252.635	35	21	14	18	17
14	Sagarin Predictor	0.54286	0.51429	13.5966	259.879	35	19	16	18	17
15	Edward Kambour	0.60000	0.51429	12.9940	228.078	35	21	14	18	17
16	Massey Ratings	0.60000	0.50000	13.2857	239.286	35	21	14	15	15
17	Regression-Based Analys	0.62857	0.50000	13.9143	243.629	35	22	13	17	17
18	Stephen Kerns	0.48571	0.50000	13.8343	270.694	35	17	18	17	17
19	Born Power Index	0.54286	0.48571	14.1800	272.848	35	19	16	17	18
20	DP Dwiggins	0.62857	0.48571	13.6857	271.229	35	22	13	17	18
21	Martien Maas	0.60000	0.48571	13.6283	254.634	35	21	14	17	18
22	Directorofinformation	0.60000	0.48571	13.7163	261.732	35	21	14	17	18
23	Wolfe *	0.65714	0.48571	13.4854	263.234	35	23	12	17	18
24	CPA Rankings	0.57143	0.48571	13.8794	275.832	35	20	15	17	18
25	Dunkel Index	0.57143	0.48571	13.7977	289.597	35	20	15	17	18
26	Anderson/Hester *	0.57143	0.48571	13.5497	255.261	35	20	15	17	18
27	Sagarin	0.57143	0.48571	13.4634	245.709	35	20	15	17	18
28	Line (updated)	0.57143	0.47059	13.3143	240.386	35	20	15	8	9
29	Moore Power Ratings	0.57143	0.47059	13.5497	245.599	35	20	15	16	18
30	football.loudsound.org	0.40000	0.46875	14.4286	291.286	35	14	21	15	17
31	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.48571	0.45714	13.6571	252.800	35	17	18	16	19
32	Billingsley	0.57143	0.45714	13.9943	282.552	35	20	15	16	19
33	Brent Craig	0.54286	0.45714	14.3860	299.086	35	19	16	16	19
34	Compughter Ratings	0.54286	0.45714	13.8623	272.953	35	19	16	16	19
35	Massey Consensus	0.60000	0.45714	13.6080	251.583	35	21	14	16	19
36	Stat Fox	0.51429	0.45455	13.9714	266.256	35	18	17	15	18
37	Pigskin Index	0.51429	0.45455	13.2291	232.442	35	18	17	15	18
38	ARGH Power Ratings	0.51429	0.44828	14.3071	285.302	35	18	17	13	16
39	Catherwood Ratings	0.60000	0.44118	14.7143	303.286	35	21	14	15	19
40	Ted Thompson Avg	0.57143	0.42857	13.4831	252.654	35	20	15	15	20
41	Atomic Football	0.62857	0.42857	13.5637	245.992	35	22	13	15	20
42	PerformanZ Ratings	0.48571	0.42857	13.7603	289.932	35	17	18	15	20
43	Dokter Entropy	0.51429	0.42857	14.1689	263.671	35	18	17	15	20
44	NutShell Sports	0.54286	0.42857	15.0431	328.123	35	19	16	15	20
45	Keeper	0.62857	0.42857	13.8160	264.297	35	22	13	15	20
46	System Average	0.57143	0.42857	13.5506	244.558	35	20	15	15	20
47	System Median	0.57143	0.41176	13.6300	247.974	35	20	15	14	20
48	The Power Rank	0.57143	0.41176	13.2571	233.255	35	20	15	14	20
49	PointShare Ratings	0.60000	0.40000	13.4229	238.851	35	21	14	14	21
50	Laffaye RWP	0.45714	0.40000	15.0700	331.535	35	16	19	14	21
51	Laz Index	0.57143	0.40000	13.4817	251.645	35	20	15	14	21
52	Lee Burdorf	0.51429	0.40000	14.7829	299.264	35	18	17	14	21
53	PI-Rate Bias	0.60000	0.40000	14.1683	270.962	35	21	14	14	21
54	Payne Power Ratings	0.57143	0.40000	14.2377	286.613	35	20	15	14	21
55	Sagrin Pure Elo	0.57143	0.40000	14.4637	285.881	35	20	15	14	21
56	Fremeau FEI	0.54286	0.39394	14.2000	280.257	35	19	16	13	20
57	Line (opening)	0.57143	0.39286	13.3714	239.129	35	20	15	11	17
58	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.54286	0.38235	15.8583	365.732	35	19	16	13	21
59	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.54286	0.38235	14.8771	303.993	35	19	16	13	21
60	Computer Adjusted Line	0.57143	0.37500	13.3429	240.171	35	20	15	6	10
61	Dave Congrove	0.57143	0.37143	14.0106	260.941	35	20	15	13	22
62	Ed Bemiss	0.60000	0.37143	13.7914	258.546	35	21	14	13	22
63	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.62857	0.37143	13.6657	254.461	35	22	13	13	22
64	Ashby AccuRatings	0.62857	0.36364	13.6857	247.629	35	22	13	12	21
65	Colley Rankings *	0.48571	0.34286	14.2406	278.585	35	17	18	12	23
66	Ted Thompson SPRS	0.60000	0.34286	13.5411	244.546	35	21	14	12	23
67	Laffaye XWP	0.48571	0.31429	16.3331	383.983	35	17	18	11	24
68	Marsee	0.42857	0.31250	15.1714	319.286	35	15	20	10	22
69	Howell	0.44118	0.30303	14.3379	282.660	34	15	19	10	23
70	Line (midweek)	0.62857		13.0714	232.836	35	22	13

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases