Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dunkel Index1.000001.000006.97006.970011010
2FEI Projections1.000001.000003.50003.500011010
3David Harville1.000001.0000011.830011.830011010
4Stephen Kerns1.000001.0000011.800011.800011010
5Laffaye RWP1.000001.0000011.710011.710011010
6Sagarin Points1.000001.0000011.580011.580011010
7Least Squares w/ HFA1.000001.0000011.540011.540011010
8Laz Index1.000001.0000010.850010.850011010
9PerformanZ Ratings1.000001.0000010.580010.580011010
10TeamRankings.com1.000001.0000010.000010.000011010
11Versus Sports Simulator1.000001.000009.16009.160011010
12DP Dwiggins1.000001.000009.00009.000011010
13Talisman Red1.000001.000008.53008.530011010
14Daniel Curry Index1.000001.000008.11008.110011010
15ARGH Power Ratings1.000001.000008.00008.000011010
16Linear Regression1.000001.000007.54007.540011010
17Howell1.000001.000007.50007.500011010
18Payne Predict1.000001.000009.62009.620011010
19Sagarin Ratings1.000000.0000013.950013.950011001
20Massey Ratings1.000000.0000014.200014.200011001
21Super List1.000000.0000014.830014.830011001
22Dave Congrove1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
23Massey Consensus1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
24Logistic Regression1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
25Dokter Entropy0.000000.0000015.300015.300010101
26Payne W/L0.000000.0000015.420015.420010101
27Sagarin Golden Mean0.000000.0000015.710015.710010101
28Billingsley0.000000.0000015.800015.800010101
29Stat Fox0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
30Line (opening)0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
31Sagarin Recent0.000000.0000016.960016.960010101
32Donchess Inference0.000000.0000018.000018.000010101
33Pigskin Index0.000000.0000019.000019.000010101
34Cleanup Hitter0.000000.0000020.500020.500010101
35Pi-Rate Ratings1.000000.0000013.500013.500011001
36Moore Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.460013.460011001
37Payne Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.390013.390011001
38Born Power Index1.000000.0000013.100013.100011001
39PI-Rate Bias1.000000.0000012.900012.900011001
40Pi-Ratings Mean1.000000.0000012.700012.700011001
41System Median1.000000.0000012.640012.640011001
42Brent Craig1.000000.0000012.580012.580011001
43System Average1.000000.0000012.550012.550011001
44ESPN FPI1.000000.0000012.120012.120011001
45Beck Elo1.000000.0000012.100012.100011001
46Edward Kambour1.000000.0000012.050012.050011001
47Line (Midweek)1.0000012.000012.0000110
48Loudsound.org1.0000012.000012.0000110
49Line (updated)1.0000012.000012.0000110
50Computer Adjusted Line1.0000012.000012.0000110
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases