Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)1.0000012.000012.0000110
2Loudsound.org1.0000012.000012.0000110
3Line (updated)1.0000012.000012.0000110
4Computer Adjusted Line1.0000012.000012.0000110
5Dunkel Index1.000001.000006.97006.970011010
6FEI Projections1.000001.000003.50003.500011010
7David Harville1.000001.0000011.830011.830011010
8Stephen Kerns1.000001.0000011.800011.800011010
9Laffaye RWP1.000001.0000011.710011.710011010
10Sagarin Points1.000001.0000011.580011.580011010
11Least Squares w/ HFA1.000001.0000011.540011.540011010
12Laz Index1.000001.0000010.850010.850011010
13TeamRankings.com1.000001.0000010.000010.000011010
14PerformanZ Ratings1.000001.0000010.580010.580011010
15Howell1.000001.000007.50007.500011010
16Linear Regression1.000001.000007.54007.540011010
17ARGH Power Ratings1.000001.000008.00008.000011010
18Daniel Curry Index1.000001.000008.11008.110011010
19Talisman Red1.000001.000008.53008.530011010
20DP Dwiggins1.000001.000009.00009.000011010
21Versus Sports Simulator1.000001.000009.16009.160011010
22Payne Predict1.000001.000009.62009.620011010
23Super List1.000000.0000014.830014.830011001
24Dave Congrove1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
25Massey Consensus1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
26Logistic Regression1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
27Dokter Entropy0.000000.0000015.300015.300010101
28Payne W/L0.000000.0000015.420015.420010101
29Sagarin Golden Mean0.000000.0000015.710015.710010101
30Billingsley0.000000.0000015.800015.800010101
31Stat Fox0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
32Line (opening)0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
33Sagarin Recent0.000000.0000016.960016.960010101
34Donchess Inference0.000000.0000018.000018.000010101
35Pigskin Index0.000000.0000019.000019.000010101
36Cleanup Hitter0.000000.0000020.500020.500010101
37Massey Ratings1.000000.0000014.200014.200011001
38Sagarin Ratings1.000000.0000013.950013.950011001
39Pi-Rate Ratings1.000000.0000013.500013.500011001
40Moore Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.460013.460011001
41Payne Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.390013.390011001
42Born Power Index1.000000.0000013.100013.100011001
43PI-Rate Bias1.000000.0000012.900012.900011001
44Pi-Ratings Mean1.000000.0000012.700012.700011001
45System Median1.000000.0000012.640012.640011001
46Brent Craig1.000000.0000012.580012.580011001
47System Average1.000000.0000012.550012.550011001
48ESPN FPI1.000000.0000012.120012.120011001
49Beck Elo1.000000.0000012.100012.100011001
50Edward Kambour1.000000.0000012.050012.050011001
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases