Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
2Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
3Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
4Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
5Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
6Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
7ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
8Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
9Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
10Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
11Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
12Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
13Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
14System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
15Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
16Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
17System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
18CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
19Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
20Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
21Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
22PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
23Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
24Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
25Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
26Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
27ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
28CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
29Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
30Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
31Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
32NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
33Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
34Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
35Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
36Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
37Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
38Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
39Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
40Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
41Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
42Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
43Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
44Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
45PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
46DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
47Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
48Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
49Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
50NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
51Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
52Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
53Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
54Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
55Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
56Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
57Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
58ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
59Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
60Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
61Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
62PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
63Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
64Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
65FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
66Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
67Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
68Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
69Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases