Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Second Half Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Ratings0.760810.4867313.02130.2221271.43934726483165174
2Donchess Inference0.757230.5194012.87251.6304270.13934626284174161
3Dunkel Index0.755100.5059513.44632.1715287.05334325984170166
4System Median0.755040.5118312.77281.2082262.45434726285173165
5David Harville0.755040.5294112.88451.3038269.40634726285180160
6ESPN FPI0.753620.5088812.82280.8836262.12234526085172166
7Keeper0.752190.5119813.13021.0582267.74434325885171163
8TeamRankings.com0.752160.5166212.77010.9781260.46434726186171160
9Sagarin Recent0.752160.5205913.31930.2510281.86234726186177163
10Versus Sports Simulator0.750000.5274412.85701.4301265.62633625284173155
11Sagarin Points0.749280.4941213.01470.2642274.44634726087168172
12Dokter Entropy0.748540.5223912.84391.5370266.27234225686175160
13PI-Rate Bias0.746400.5029913.01090.5118264.13634725988168166
14Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
15FEI Projections0.745660.4940513.08771.7495273.54234625888166170
16System Average0.743520.5029412.81881.2579263.04934725889171169
17Pi-Ratings Mean0.737750.5266312.92600.4482262.43634725691178160
18Pi-Rate Ratings0.737750.5283613.02620.5018264.49434725691177158
19Sagarin Golden Mean0.737750.4926313.23540.1602277.51334725691167172
20Born Power Index0.737750.5147113.37752.0764288.70234725691175165
21Computer Adjusted Line0.734870.5215512.61240.6758249.14234725592121111
22Roundtable0.732000.4811714.24801.8480331.94625018367115124
23Massey Consensus0.731990.5235313.47061.7721290.42734725493178162
24Massey Ratings0.730990.4955213.45360.7927290.40934225092166169
25ARGH Power Ratings0.730430.5443413.39421.5696292.40634525293178149
26Line (Midweek)0.7291112.67000.6988251.72034725394
27PerformanZ Ratings0.726220.5221213.69402.1163298.03634725295177162
28Line (updated)0.726220.5135112.61960.5879248.877347252959590
29Catherwood Ratings0.726220.4969913.62542.8069294.85934725295165167
30Beck Elo0.723340.4823513.63462.4463289.97934725196164176
31Stat Fox0.723340.5243913.73482.8878296.62534725196172156
32Super List0.723340.4941214.86371.5900340.49934725196168172
33Daniel Curry Index0.721210.4736813.83371.5142302.63333023892153170
34ThePowerRank.com0.720590.5256813.22830.0348278.19734024595174157
35Moore Power Ratings0.720460.5221213.60941.3644292.39334725097177162
36Edward Kambour0.717580.4852913.57591.1914289.55634724998165175
37Laz Index0.717580.5000013.42321.7134285.74134724998170170
38Talisman Red0.717300.5021614.18961.3191322.08823717067116115
39Howell0.708330.4905713.32430.8157282.95833623898156162
40Cleanup Hitter0.706740.4954414.63641.1526330.797341241100163166
41Line (opening)0.703170.4645213.27381.1614279.820347244103144166
42Loudsound.org0.698960.5345514.8997-2.4291352.78928920287147128
43Dave Congrove0.684970.5191714.72091.4485332.476346237109176163
44Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases