Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2021-12-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.723760.4770113.12290.3052263.912362262100166182
2Beck Elo0.701660.5069613.08540.9386263.108362254108182177
3Bihl System0.704420.4986112.92440.2093254.904362255107179180
4Billingsley0.726520.4484713.77320.5301295.03336226399161198
5Born Power Index0.687850.4986113.05981.1018262.691362249113179180
6Brent Craig0.715470.5264612.92200.6982258.763362259103189170
7Cleanup Hitter0.665750.4668614.41710.8539318.649362241121162185
8Computer Adjusted Line0.704420.4418612.53590.4365243.3963622551077696
9Daniel Curry Index0.704420.4735413.18770.3151263.870362255107170189
10Dave Congrove0.686980.5154113.26341.0123270.447361248113184173
11David Harville0.707180.4636912.79400.2059250.270362256106166192
12Dokter Entropy0.712710.4733912.86280.9058258.267362258104169188
13Donchess Inference0.707180.4715913.04730.6147260.831362256106166186
14DP Dwiggins0.715880.5000012.95541.0891261.103359257102173173
15Dunkel Index0.687850.4902513.02960.9754256.963362249113176183
16Edward Kambour0.709940.4818912.81920.4270249.943362257105173186
17ESPN FPI0.712710.4804512.72511.2501253.788362258104172186
18FEI Projections0.704420.5070012.80140.0914248.857362255107181176
19Howell0.719440.4726213.14580.1904260.867360259101164183
20Keeper0.726520.5195513.18301.2832270.62736226399186172
21Laffaye RWP0.707790.4852513.59670.8251286.14830821890148157
22Laz Index0.718230.4986112.84140.5660253.302362260102179180
23Least Squares w/ HFA0.687850.5208915.63910.2504371.884362249113187172
24Line (Midweek)0.7071812.48340.4530242.906362256106
25Line (opening)0.715470.5268112.53040.2928245.960362259103167150
26Line (updated)0.718230.4193512.52210.3840243.7123622601025272
27Linear Regression0.707180.5069613.05210.2023260.289362256106182177
28Logistic Regression0.687850.4624015.5402-2.4646375.449362249113166193
29Loudsound.org0.688390.4736813.6884-2.4759280.323353243110162180
30Massey Consensus0.737570.4636913.42311.0790275.44236226795166192
31Massey Ratings0.698900.4735413.08760.1975258.765362253109170189
32Moore Power Ratings0.709940.5069613.13630.8668268.911362257105182177
33Payne Power Ratings0.707180.4651813.2370-0.2399269.025362256106167192
34Payne Predict0.726520.4930412.90090.2285259.05936226399177182
35Payne W/L0.720990.4553113.9167-0.4852295.302362261101163195
36PerformanZ Ratings0.734810.4846813.29381.1753274.88136226696174185
37PI-Rate Bias0.709940.5097512.89320.7599255.343362257105183176
38Pi-Rate Ratings0.693370.5112412.90750.6953255.836362251111182174
39Pi-Ratings Mean0.707180.5000012.89500.7210253.865362256106176176
40Pigskin Index0.693370.4969912.93360.6745254.762362251111165167
41Roundtable0.740070.5153812.57400.1986243.75827720572134126
42Sagarin Golden Mean0.696130.4596112.91100.2220251.715362252110165194
43Sagarin Points0.715470.4581012.86420.2136251.527362259103164194
44Sagarin Ratings0.701660.4345412.81240.2092247.906362254108156203
45Sagarin Recent0.693370.4791112.95750.1950256.779362251111172187
46Stat Fox0.685080.5000013.04982.3151263.710362248114172172
47Stephen Kerns0.704420.5027913.08770.8369257.512362255107180178
48Super List0.720990.5000015.22461.0901352.415362261101179179
49System Average0.707180.4958212.65650.5963245.391362256106178181
50System Median0.693370.4930012.68330.5408246.394362251111176181
51Talisman Red0.692520.4888312.9714-0.0088259.714361250111175183
52TeamRankings.com0.712710.5423712.65080.6194249.794362258104192162
53Versus Sports Simulator0.709940.4846812.96960.4108258.153362257105174185
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases