Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Second Half Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70823 | 0.49100 | 12.3065 | 1.2143 | 257.356 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 191 | 198 |
2 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.49361 | 12.3947 | 1.2003 | 261.324 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 193 | 198 |
3 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.69327 | 0.48608 | 12.4667 | 1.2967 | 262.545 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 192 | 203 |
4 | Line (updated) | 0.69077 | 0.48795 | 12.1696 | 0.9352 | 245.637 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 81 | 85 |
5 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69077 | 0.51385 | 12.3537 | 0.3741 | 254.033 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 193 |
6 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.48092 | 12.4025 | 0.7067 | 258.742 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 189 | 204 |
7 | Line (Midweek) | 0.68828 | | 12.1658 | 0.8865 | 246.572 | 401 | 276 | 125 | | |
8 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.68828 | 0.49780 | 12.1746 | 0.9401 | 246.707 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 113 | 114 |
9 | Dokter Entropy | 0.68828 | 0.50253 | 12.3029 | 1.3881 | 253.666 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 199 | 197 |
10 | Pigskin Index | 0.68828 | 0.50928 | 12.5860 | 1.1550 | 268.728 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 192 | 185 |
11 | FEI Projections | 0.68579 | 0.51015 | 12.5154 | -1.2731 | 260.921 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 201 | 193 |
12 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68579 | 0.53046 | 12.6303 | 1.3528 | 267.524 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 209 | 185 |
13 | ESPN FPI | 0.68579 | 0.51889 | 12.3418 | 1.5017 | 256.291 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 206 | 191 |
14 | Keeper | 0.68750 | 0.51646 | 12.8292 | 2.1349 | 272.116 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 204 | 191 |
15 | System Median | 0.68329 | 0.50891 | 12.2863 | 1.0033 | 254.703 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 200 | 193 |
16 | Edward Kambour | 0.68329 | 0.51134 | 12.4024 | 0.9204 | 257.449 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 203 | 194 |
17 | Line (opening) | 0.68080 | 0.51506 | 12.1858 | 0.9214 | 248.344 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 171 | 161 |
18 | Donchess Inference | 0.68080 | 0.52163 | 12.3888 | 1.2311 | 253.483 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 205 | 188 |
19 | Massey Ratings | 0.68080 | 0.54408 | 12.4326 | 0.5710 | 259.567 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 216 | 181 |
20 | Howell | 0.68080 | 0.48670 | 13.0873 | 1.2844 | 287.375 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 183 | 193 |
21 | Dave Congrove | 0.67830 | 0.50758 | 12.6351 | 1.2525 | 273.307 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 201 | 195 |
22 | Laffaye RWP | 0.67830 | 0.49622 | 12.8430 | 1.2225 | 277.720 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 197 | 200 |
23 | Born Power Index | 0.67830 | 0.48866 | 12.7783 | 1.4112 | 275.438 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 203 |
24 | Sagarin Recent | 0.67830 | 0.52141 | 12.4430 | 0.3165 | 257.696 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 207 | 190 |
25 | David Harville | 0.67830 | 0.51899 | 12.3732 | 0.7194 | 258.638 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 205 | 190 |
26 | System Average | 0.67830 | 0.49495 | 12.3219 | 1.0654 | 255.928 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 196 | 200 |
27 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68342 | 0.51523 | 12.8351 | 0.8798 | 277.612 | 398 | 272 | 126 | 203 | 191 |
28 | Dunkel Index | 0.68687 | 0.51276 | 12.8034 | 1.4600 | 279.992 | 396 | 272 | 124 | 201 | 191 |
29 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67830 | 0.49874 | 12.3747 | 0.5489 | 257.745 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 198 | 199 |
30 | Laz Index | 0.67920 | 0.53046 | 12.5239 | 1.1060 | 258.874 | 399 | 271 | 128 | 209 | 185 |
31 | Talisman Red | 0.67581 | 0.53149 | 12.6589 | 0.6449 | 269.413 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 211 | 186 |
32 | Stat Fox | 0.67581 | 0.49606 | 12.7732 | 2.4193 | 275.892 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 189 | 192 |
33 | Beck Elo | 0.67581 | 0.47583 | 12.7865 | 1.6138 | 278.086 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 187 | 206 |
34 | Massey Consensus | 0.67581 | 0.49874 | 13.0219 | 1.7170 | 287.824 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 198 | 199 |
35 | Payne Predict | 0.67332 | 0.47475 | 12.9410 | 1.0327 | 283.334 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 188 | 208 |
36 | Billingsley | 0.67332 | 0.51134 | 12.8153 | 1.1215 | 277.332 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 203 | 194 |
37 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.67332 | 0.49370 | 12.8127 | 0.8145 | 277.013 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 196 | 201 |
38 | DP Dwiggins | 0.67500 | 0.51181 | 12.8200 | -0.3600 | 273.570 | 400 | 270 | 130 | 195 | 186 |
39 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.67332 | 0.49118 | 12.7174 | 1.0186 | 270.507 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 195 | 202 |
40 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47607 | 12.8968 | 0.7591 | 277.022 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 189 | 208 |
41 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47721 | 12.9551 | 2.3965 | 283.654 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 178 | 195 |
42 | Waywardtrends | 0.66833 | 0.54798 | 12.4554 | 1.4761 | 263.560 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 217 | 179 |
43 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.48148 | 12.7731 | 0.8953 | 272.858 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 182 | 196 |
44 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.52141 | 13.6989 | 1.9048 | 305.681 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 207 | 190 |
45 | Sagarin Points | 0.66584 | 0.51889 | 12.4593 | 0.3785 | 255.950 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 206 | 191 |
46 | Payne W/L | 0.65087 | 0.50253 | 13.1545 | 0.6977 | 291.661 | 401 | 261 | 140 | 199 | 197 |
47 | Brent Craig | 0.69722 | 0.48459 | 12.7496 | 1.7930 | 271.689 | 360 | 251 | 109 | 173 | 184 |
48 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.62095 | 0.48837 | 13.5960 | 0.9279 | 298.045 | 401 | 249 | 152 | 189 | 198 |
49 | Bihl System | 0.68802 | 0.47472 | 12.7996 | 1.0667 | 268.819 | 359 | 247 | 112 | 169 | 187 |
50 | Loudsound.org | 0.68857 | 0.53659 | 12.7886 | -1.6800 | 271.466 | 350 | 241 | 109 | 176 | 152 |
51 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
52 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
53 | Roundtable | 0.69966 | 0.49825 | 12.7270 | 0.8498 | 267.250 | 293 | 205 | 88 | 142 | 143 |
54 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases