ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Second Half Totals

Through 2018-01-09

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	ESPN FPI	0.72439	0.54523	12.3880	-0.5190	257.768	410	297	113	217	181
2	Sagarin Ratings	0.71220	0.54523	12.6947	-1.4106	270.960	410	292	118	217	181
3	The Sports Cruncher	0.73671	0.54497	12.3946	-1.5430	259.172	395	291	104	206	172
4	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71707	0.53480	12.3451	-0.9037	254.950	410	294	116	146	127
5	Logistic Regression	0.67232	0.53353	14.7053	-4.0144	360.288	354	238	116	183	160
6	Linear Regression	0.69774	0.53061	12.6867	-1.6162	266.149	354	247	107	182	161
7	TeamRankings.com	0.72927	0.52897	12.5868	-0.1849	262.800	410	299	111	210	187
8	Donchess Inference	0.70976	0.52645	12.6322	-1.1064	266.548	410	291	119	209	188
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.71707	0.52525	12.6774	-1.3062	273.931	410	294	116	208	188
10	Line (updated)	0.71951	0.52510	12.3256	-0.9183	254.153	410	295	115	136	123
11	Edward Kambour	0.71782	0.52041	12.9710	-1.5862	279.370	404	290	114	204	188
12	Massey Ratings	0.71707	0.52010	13.3674	-1.9242	294.345	410	294	116	207	191
13	Dave Congrove	0.73659	0.51759	13.1975	-0.7139	290.355	410	302	108	206	192
14	Sagarin Points	0.71463	0.51759	12.6382	-1.4283	268.495	410	293	117	206	192
15	Ashby AccuRatings	0.74634	0.51743	12.5779	-0.5778	267.351	410	306	104	193	180
16	ComPughter Ratings	0.71358	0.51531	13.1438	-1.1907	284.725	405	289	116	202	190
17	ThePowerRank.com	0.70905	0.51407	12.9606	-0.7894	280.111	409	290	119	201	190
18	Super List	0.67317	0.51256	15.0759	-0.5391	367.594	410	276	134	204	194
19	Born Power Index	0.69756	0.51256	13.1452	-0.8674	283.063	410	286	124	204	194
20	System Median	0.71463	0.51026	12.6288	-0.8569	267.110	410	293	117	199	191
21	Line (opening)	0.68293	0.50949	12.4500	-0.5695	259.817	410	280	130	161	155
22	Atomic Football	0.71951	0.50923	12.5707	-1.4732	265.204	410	295	115	193	186
23	Moore Power Ratings	0.69268	0.50882	13.2328	-0.9382	284.147	410	284	126	202	195
24	FEI Projections	0.71250	0.50667	13.4167	0.0250	281.458	240	171	69	114	111
25	Catherwood Ratings	0.70732	0.50529	13.2049	-0.1561	279.941	410	290	120	191	187
26	PerformanZ Ratings	0.69756	0.50503	13.6532	-0.6442	299.843	410	286	124	201	197
27	System Average	0.71707	0.50378	12.6392	-0.8331	267.531	410	294	116	200	197
28	Sagarin Recent	0.69268	0.50378	13.4019	-1.3580	295.566	410	284	126	200	197
29	Dokter Entropy	0.71220	0.50378	12.4507	-0.5109	259.443	410	292	118	200	197
30	Bihl System	0.71007	0.50127	13.0763	-0.2371	278.671	407	289	118	198	197
31	Payne Power Ratings	0.70732	0.50126	13.4041	-1.8145	298.731	410	290	120	199	198
32	Massey Consensus	0.64390	0.50000	15.5219	-0.2312	377.476	410	264	146	199	199
33	Cleanup Hitter	0.68293	0.49871	14.0975	-0.9632	323.318	410	280	130	194	195
34	Stephen Kerns	0.69802	0.49871	13.3203	-0.6217	296.666	404	282	122	194	195
35	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.70976	0.49497	12.7849	-0.6390	277.887	410	291	119	197	201
36	Liam Bressler	0.69211	0.49462	12.9697	0.9657	275.987	393	272	121	184	188
37	Stat Fox	0.71707	0.49344	13.0830	0.2295	278.833	410	294	116	188	193
38	Keeper	0.71951	0.49246	13.2243	-0.6696	286.294	410	295	115	196	202
39	Billingsley	0.69756	0.49118	13.7370	-1.0531	310.605	410	286	124	195	202
40	DP Dwiggins	0.69756	0.49091	13.4146	-0.9854	294.880	410	286	124	189	196
41	NutShell Sports	0.67561	0.48843	14.2850	-1.1142	337.597	410	277	133	190	199
42	Daniel Curry Index	0.70000	0.48744	13.6126	-0.4114	302.540	410	287	123	194	204
43	PI-Rate Bias	0.70732	0.48724	12.7852	-0.6294	276.406	410	290	120	191	201
44	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65819	0.48688	15.4876	-1.0991	389.845	354	233	121	167	176
45	Laz Index	0.70488	0.48492	12.9363	-0.8797	275.255	410	289	121	193	205
46	Dunkel Index	0.71463	0.48492	14.0968	-0.6514	318.037	410	293	117	193	205
47	Brent Craig	0.72148	0.48443	12.8622	-0.5273	268.200	298	215	83	140	149
48	Marsee	0.71638	0.48438	13.4034	1.0611	288.716	409	293	116	186	198
49	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.72683	0.48338	12.7116	-0.7300	274.677	410	298	112	189	202
50	Lee Burdorf	0.70098	0.48205	13.5422	-0.7770	298.120	408	286	122	188	202
51	ARGH Power Ratings	0.71951	0.48187	13.2305	-1.1220	286.466	410	295	115	186	200
52	Loudsound.org	0.69270	0.48128	13.6952	-3.9421	306.291	397	275	122	180	194
53	Pigskin Index	0.70244	0.47906	13.0585	-1.1021	280.687	410	288	122	183	199
54	Howell	0.68780	0.47668	13.4353	-1.3718	300.880	410	282	128	184	202
55	Roundtable	0.71149	0.47532	13.3667	-1.0782	294.024	409	291	118	183	202
56	Laffaye RWP	0.70488	0.47487	13.6755	-1.0801	306.258	410	289	121	189	209
57	Beck Elo	0.68537	0.47487	13.7188	-0.7647	303.604	410	281	129	189	209
58	Billingsley+	0.70488	0.46985	13.7098	-0.8356	309.560	410	289	121	187	211
59	Talisman Red	0.70781	0.46354	13.4187	-1.6887	294.434	397	281	116	178	206
60	Brent Craig 2	0.70000	0.46226	14.8616	1.4155	334.479	110	77	33	49	57
61	Line (Midweek)	0.70244		12.4024	-0.7756	256.603	410	288	122

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases