ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2013 Season Totals

Through 2014-01-07

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Ted Thompson SPRS	0.78095	0.51801	12.2721	-0.3005	237.926	735	574	161	374	348
2	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.77823	0.52786	12.4221	-0.2736	240.139	735	572	163	379	339
3	Ed Bemiss	0.77729	0.51407	12.4644	-0.5365	244.947	687	534	153	347	328
4	Line (midweek)	0.77687		12.2993	0.0564	237.080	735	571	164
5	Ashby AccuRatings	0.77551	0.51267	12.4695	-0.7169	247.691	735	570	165	344	327
6	Catherwood Ratings	0.77520	0.55637	12.5000	0.1717	247.721	734	569	165	380	303
7	Ted Thompson Avg	0.77415	0.52089	12.3430	-0.0288	238.419	735	569	166	374	344
8	Dave Congrove	0.77279	0.55740	12.8916	-1.2192	263.202	735	568	167	403	320
9	System Median	0.77143	0.51325	12.3099	-0.2693	239.833	735	567	168	368	349
10	PI-Rate Bias	0.77143	0.52083	12.5039	-0.2827	242.613	735	567	168	375	345
11	Keeper	0.77143	0.52566	12.9492	0.5517	262.321	735	567	168	379	342
12	Line (updated)	0.77007	0.54262	12.2503	0.1086	235.782	735	566	169	261	220
13	Computer Adjusted Line	0.77007	0.55037	12.2361	0.0621	235.295	735	566	169	295	241
14	Atomic Football	0.76871	0.52624	12.5405	0.0574	247.132	735	565	170	381	343
15	Born Power Index	0.76871	0.54420	12.6603	-0.3303	254.418	735	565	170	394	330
16	System Average	0.76735	0.51939	12.3253	-0.2443	240.200	735	564	171	375	347
17	Line (opening)	0.76735	0.50161	12.3837	-0.3629	239.927	735	564	171	312	310
18	CPA Rankings	0.76735	0.56906	12.5701	0.2011	252.810	735	564	171	412	312
19	Sagarin	0.76735	0.50138	12.6580	0.5580	255.164	735	564	171	363	361
20	DP Dwiggins	0.76639	0.52086	12.9235	-0.6184	260.142	732	561	171	362	333
21	Sagarin Curve	0.76599	0.51105	12.7057	0.5502	258.828	735	563	172	370	354
22	Sagarin Predictor	0.76599	0.50346	12.7024	0.5510	256.642	735	563	172	364	359
23	Moore Power Ratings	0.76567	0.53675	12.6350	-0.3135	252.930	734	562	172	387	334
24	Dokter Entropy	0.76463	0.53112	12.3383	0.2897	243.134	735	562	173	384	339
25	Compughter Ratings	0.76349	0.54494	12.7334	-1.1624	260.142	723	552	171	388	324
26	Pigskin Index	0.76327	0.51988	12.3375	-0.5496	239.961	735	561	174	353	326
27	Stat Fox	0.76327	0.52478	12.6641	0.6760	252.813	735	561	174	360	326
28	Directorofinformation	0.76327	0.48343	12.8039	-0.0680	257.547	735	561	174	350	374
29	Massey Consensus	0.76190	0.49448	12.9335	-0.4676	262.700	735	560	175	358	366
30	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.76054	0.49233	12.9267	-0.5317	257.579	735	559	176	353	364
31	Edward Kambour	0.75928	0.50629	13.0465	-0.2069	267.895	727	552	175	362	353
32	Lee Burdorf	0.75853	0.52566	12.7262	-0.3715	260.079	733	556	177	379	342
33	Daniel Curry Index	0.75664	0.52211	12.9270	-0.2385	267.147	715	541	174	366	335
34	Payne Power Ratings	0.75646	0.53315	13.0407	-0.5542	265.786	735	556	179	386	338
35	Billingsley+	0.75510	0.49516	12.8360	-0.2635	258.461	735	555	180	358	365
36	Laz Index	0.75510	0.51176	12.8035	-1.0857	257.243	735	555	180	370	353
37	ARGH Power Ratings	0.75510	0.51814	12.6646	0.0432	256.311	735	555	180	357	332
38	Massey Ratings	0.75510	0.50755	12.6981	-0.2256	256.067	735	555	180	336	326
39	The Power Rank	0.75241	0.49155	13.0835	-0.7232	272.642	727	547	180	349	361
40	Regression-Based Analys	0.75171	0.49199	13.5935	0.5229	287.790	733	551	182	338	349
41	Fremeau FEI	0.75068	0.50357	13.5668	-2.4821	288.452	734	551	183	353	348
42	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.75034	0.47511	14.3397	-3.0043	323.431	733	550	183	334	369
43	Brent Craig	0.74761	0.53878	12.8853	-0.7100	263.068	733	548	185	389	333
44	Donchess Inference	0.74625	0.53026	13.4775	-1.1748	293.049	733	547	186	368	326
45	Stephen Kerns	0.74558	0.49025	13.0529	-1.0835	267.360	735	548	187	352	366
46	Beck Elo	0.74422	0.49516	13.1360	-0.7215	265.776	735	547	188	358	365
47	Dunkel Index	0.74422	0.49862	13.2086	-0.8031	277.096	735	547	188	361	363
48	Howell	0.74251	0.49854	13.0994	0.2023	276.202	734	545	189	341	343
49	PerformanZ Ratings	0.73878	0.52072	13.3551	-0.8363	282.219	735	543	192	377	347
50	CPA Retro	0.73605	0.53591	13.2186	0.0851	285.751	735	541	194	388	336
51	Linear Regression	0.73554	0.55932	12.9039	0.0351	258.552	363	267	96	198	156
52	Wolfe *	0.73278	0.50847	13.3397	0.7526	285.836	363	266	97	180	174
53	Bihl System	0.72816	0.50868	12.9452	0.7886	254.846	412	300	112	205	198
54	Marsee	0.72752	0.52564	13.5450	1.1888	291.153	734	534	200	369	333
55	Laffaye RWP	0.72752	0.52420	14.1570	-2.2195	311.442	734	534	200	379	344
56	NutShell Sports	0.72653	0.49715	14.0611	-1.2702	309.710	735	534	201	349	353
57	PointShare Ratings	0.72607	0.52269	13.8289	-1.0954	297.686	606	440	166	311	284
58	Billingsley	0.72517	0.48757	14.0713	-1.0123	310.275	735	533	202	353	371
59	Super List	0.72109	0.49239	14.4654	-0.6876	326.516	735	530	205	356	367
60	Covers.com	0.71973	0.47018	14.4970	-1.5563	325.507	735	529	206	339	382
61	Martien Maas	0.71951	0.49875	13.5263	-0.1419	285.530	410	295	115	199	200
62	Anderson/Hester *	0.71625	0.50565	13.3076	0.0475	279.275	363	260	103	179	175
63	Laffaye XWP	0.71470	0.49040	15.3605	5.5202	379.123	687	491	196	332	345
64	Colley Rankings *	0.71350	0.49153	13.3935	0.0266	283.029	363	259	104	174	180
65	Sportrends	0.71196	0.47994	14.2718	-1.2874	319.845	677	482	195	311	337
66	Massey *	0.70523	0.51695	13.7148	0.8972	306.395	363	256	107	183	171
67	football.loudsound.org	0.70027	0.50218	14.6798	-5.0157	339.031	734	514	220	345	342
68	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.69697	0.49008	15.4664	0.4178	363.790	363	253	110	173	180
69	Sagrin Pure Elo	0.69512	0.51000	13.9580	2.1303	312.075	410	285	125	204	196
70	Logistic Regression	0.66391	0.50142	15.0381	0.2812	355.700	363	241	122	177	176

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases