Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-12-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.723670.4971513.4576-0.2770281.199731529202349353
2Beck Elo0.700410.4910113.46900.6618284.142731512219355368
3Bihl System0.694920.4951213.07070.2171258.562413287126203207
4Billingsley0.714090.4764513.95620.0539306.275731522209344378
5Born Power Index0.693570.4868613.49761.1577275.804731507224352371
6Brent Craig0.709440.5219513.07230.4671263.758413293120214196
7Catherwood Ratings0.770270.5000013.74320.6351276.443148114347070
8Cleanup Hitter0.675790.4724214.34890.7772320.517731494237334373
9Computer Adjusted Line0.715460.4701512.65800.3516246.081731523208189213
10Daniel Curry Index0.700410.4675013.8819-0.0720297.049731512219338385
11Dave Congrove0.695890.5131813.65400.9330285.481730508222370351
12David Harville0.712720.4577013.09070.1360260.463731521210330391
13Dokter Entropy0.727770.4632513.09990.4198260.263731532199334387
14Donchess Inference0.722300.4675113.27130.1053266.990731528203331377
15DP Dwiggins0.698760.4978513.92300.1183303.285727508219348351
16Dunkel Index0.687600.4969013.47921.1920278.069653449204321325
17Edward Kambour0.718190.4868613.22900.5752263.238731525206352371
18ESPN FPI0.709990.4723012.96261.1034258.292731519212341381
19FEI Projections0.692970.5096312.96310.1775254.026583404179291280
20Howell0.709190.4900313.5322-0.3154283.369729517212344358
21Keeper0.719390.5202213.37891.1921282.567727523204373344
22Laffaye RWP0.708770.4969813.88820.0672304.734673477196329333
23Laz Index0.726400.4882113.11010.5061261.188731531200352369
24Least Squares w/ HFA0.687850.5208915.63910.2504371.884362249113187172
25Line (Midweek)0.7209312.61490.3687245.402731527204
26Line (opening)0.719560.5023312.70040.1382249.200731526205324321
27Line (updated)0.720930.4853412.63680.3044245.906731527204149158
28Linear Regression0.707180.5069613.05210.2023260.289362256106182177
29Logistic Regression0.687850.4624015.5402-2.4646375.449362249113166193
30Loudsound.org0.654650.4786314.7601-3.2510342.776721472249336366
31Massey Consensus0.733240.4847613.60571.1080282.895731536195350372
32Massey Ratings0.705880.4854813.4021-0.1630274.564731516215351372
33Moore Power Ratings0.704510.4910113.37530.4821277.694731515216355368
34Payne Power Ratings0.705880.4661113.6216-0.2945287.186731516215337386
35Payne Predict0.699040.4647313.81690.1442299.887731511220336387
36Payne W/L0.715460.4695314.3937-0.9110321.141731523208339383
37PerformanZ Ratings0.711350.4792214.01500.3878307.737731520211346376
38PI-Rate Bias0.723670.5013913.11410.9762260.345731529202361359
39Pi-Rate Ratings0.708620.5104613.11770.8955260.862731518213366351
40Pi-Ratings Mean0.720930.5021113.03300.8680257.333731527204357354
41Pigskin Index0.694940.5059213.14770.8636259.115731508223342334
42Roundtable0.710260.5031713.60560.5795293.432497353144238235
43Sagarin Golden Mean0.692200.4661113.50520.2220283.036731506225337386
44Sagarin Points0.705880.4612213.29870.1515267.874731516215333389
45Sagarin Ratings0.700410.4467513.22440.1602264.812731512219323400
46Sagarin Recent0.697670.4758013.58010.2712292.150731510221344379
47Stat Fox0.697670.4913313.37492.1465272.564731510221340352
48Stephen Kerns0.693570.5097013.87200.9671301.042731507224368354
49Super List0.720930.4944415.32321.3623356.364731527204356364
50System Average0.715460.4833812.92090.4208253.856731523208349373
51System Median0.709990.4734612.90720.4321252.788731519212339377
52Talisman Red0.698090.4955413.2858-0.0636268.243679474205333339
53TeamRankings.com0.715460.4909113.02640.6355260.157731523208351364
54Versus Sports Simulator0.710560.4743413.25350.5166268.502729518211342379
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases