Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
2Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
3Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
4Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
5Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
6Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
7Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
8ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
9Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
10TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
11Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
12System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
13PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
14Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
15System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
16Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
17David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
18Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
19Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
20Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
21Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
22Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
23Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
24Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
25Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
26Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
27Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
28Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
29Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
30Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
31Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
32Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
33Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
34Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
35Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
36ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
37PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
38Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
39Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
40Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
41Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
42Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
43DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
44Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
45Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
46Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
47Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
48Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
49FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases