ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-01-11

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Keeper	0.71035	0.51531	13.4245	1.2305	283.635	763	542	221	387	364
2	Stephen Kerns	0.68831	0.50725	13.9070	1.0216	301.969	770	530	240	385	374
3	Dave Congrove	0.68270	0.50528	13.7253	0.9936	288.525	769	525	244	383	375
4	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.69870	0.50531	13.2049	1.0277	264.988	770	538	232	381	373
5	Super List	0.71299	0.49934	15.2931	1.5619	355.876	770	549	221	378	379
6	Beck Elo	0.69610	0.49474	13.4583	0.7619	284.370	770	536	234	376	384
7	PI-Rate Bias	0.71039	0.49538	13.2086	1.1340	264.793	770	547	223	375	382
8	Moore Power Ratings	0.69221	0.48816	13.4232	0.6346	279.246	770	533	237	371	389
9	Massey Consensus	0.72857	0.48748	13.5983	1.2433	283.608	770	561	209	370	389
10	Born Power Index	0.68442	0.48553	13.5410	1.2933	278.308	770	527	243	369	391
11	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.70909	0.49398	13.1366	1.0153	261.875	770	546	224	369	378
12	ARGH Power Ratings	0.71688	0.50000	13.4558	-0.1104	281.555	770	552	218	369	369
13	Laz Index	0.71429	0.48681	13.1609	0.6398	263.527	770	550	220	369	389
14	System Average	0.70649	0.48617	12.9646	0.5539	255.949	770	544	226	369	390
15	Massey Ratings	0.69091	0.48289	13.4370	-0.0081	276.138	770	532	238	367	393
16	Billingsley	0.71169	0.48221	13.8826	0.1543	304.154	770	548	222	366	393
17	Edward Kambour	0.70909	0.48158	13.2806	0.6883	265.528	770	546	224	366	394
18	Howell	0.70833	0.49389	13.5013	-0.1457	282.844	768	544	224	364	373
19	Sagarin Recent	0.69221	0.47895	13.5677	0.4317	292.251	770	533	237	364	396
20	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70909	0.47958	14.0244	0.5273	308.273	770	546	224	364	395
21	TeamRankings.com	0.70390	0.48271	13.1130	0.7473	263.278	770	542	228	363	389
22	DP Dwiggins	0.69191	0.49589	13.9295	0.3133	304.002	766	530	236	362	368
23	Payne W/L	0.71299	0.47625	14.3145	-0.7173	318.431	770	549	221	361	397
24	Pigskin Index	0.68312	0.50211	13.1947	0.9822	262.218	770	526	244	357	354
25	System Median	0.70130	0.47410	12.9598	0.5655	255.160	770	540	230	357	396
26	Stat Fox	0.68701	0.49038	13.4117	2.1963	274.644	770	529	241	357	371
27	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.68182	0.46711	13.5186	0.3441	283.960	770	525	245	355	405
28	Daniel Curry Index	0.68961	0.46711	13.8791	0.1010	298.036	770	531	239	355	405
29	ESPN FPI	0.69870	0.46772	13.0218	1.1573	260.627	770	538	232	355	404
30	Payne Power Ratings	0.70390	0.46711	13.6009	-0.1149	286.661	770	542	228	355	405
31	Versus Sports Simulator	0.70143	0.46764	13.3260	0.6634	271.270	767	538	229	354	403
32	Loudsound.org	0.65395	0.47962	14.7039	-2.9618	340.061	760	497	263	353	383
33	Donchess Inference	0.71688	0.47383	13.2899	0.2138	267.461	770	552	218	353	392
34	Cleanup Hitter	0.66883	0.47312	14.3228	0.8333	319.305	770	515	255	352	392
35	Payne Predict	0.69091	0.46316	13.8672	0.3339	301.146	770	532	238	352	408
36	Laffaye RWP	0.70141	0.50359	13.8664	0.2000	304.175	710	498	212	351	346
37	Sagarin Points	0.69221	0.45850	13.3517	0.2749	270.378	770	533	237	348	411
38	Dokter Entropy	0.71651	0.45971	13.1405	0.5041	262.208	769	551	218	348	409
39	David Harville	0.70390	0.45910	13.1467	0.2825	262.413	770	542	228	348	410
40	Talisman Red	0.68994	0.49081	13.3432	0.1340	271.022	716	494	222	347	360
41	Dunkel Index	0.67630	0.49780	13.5055	1.3240	279.919	692	468	224	340	343
42	Sagarin Ratings	0.69091	0.44737	13.2541	0.2903	266.691	770	532	238	340	420
43	Line (opening)	0.70779	0.50000	12.7526	0.2760	251.696	770	545	225	337	337
44	FEI Projections	0.68277	0.50412	13.0317	0.3315	257.875	621	424	197	306	301
45	Roundtable	0.69231	0.50198	13.6266	0.7186	293.881	533	369	164	253	251
46	Brent Craig	0.70843	0.51942	13.0799	0.5354	263.541	415	294	121	214	198
47	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71299	0.47674	12.6591	0.4734	246.306	770	549	221	205	225
48	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66584	0.51515	15.6582	0.6268	372.986	401	267	134	204	192
49	Bihl System	0.69324	0.49392	13.0753	0.2528	258.480	414	287	127	203	208
50	Linear Regression	0.69077	0.49747	13.1928	0.4825	267.460	401	277	124	197	199
51	Logistic Regression	0.67830	0.47222	15.4058	-2.1711	369.469	401	272	129	187	209
52	Line (updated)	0.71818	0.50000	12.6247	0.4247	245.711	770	553	217	165	165
53	Catherwood Ratings	0.77027	0.50000	13.7432	0.6351	276.443	148	114	34	70	70
54	Line (Midweek)	0.71169		12.6429	0.4740	246.300	770	548	222

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases