Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
2MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
3Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
4Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
5Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
6Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
7Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
8Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
9Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
10Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
11Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
12Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
13Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
14Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
15NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
16Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
17Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
18Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
19Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
20Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
21Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
22ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
23Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
24FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
25Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
26Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
27Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
28NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
29ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
30Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
31Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
32Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
33Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
34Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
35System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
36Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
37PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
38ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
39Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
40Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
41Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
42Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
43CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
44PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
45CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
46Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
47Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
48Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
49Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
50Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
51Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
52Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
53Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
54Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
55PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
56Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
57Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
58Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
59Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
60System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
61Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
62Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
63Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
64Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
65DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
66Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
67Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
68Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
69Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases