Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
2Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
3PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
4Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
5Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
6Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
7Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
8Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
9Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
10System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
11Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
12Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
13Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
14TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
15ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
16Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
17Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
18David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
19System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
20Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
21Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
22Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
23Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
24Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
25Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
26Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
27Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
28Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
29Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
30Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
31Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
32Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
33Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
34ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
35PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
36Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
37Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
38Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
39DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
40Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
41Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
42Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
43Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
44Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
45Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
46Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
47FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
48ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
49Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases