Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Season Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.77027 | 0.50000 | 13.7432 | 0.6351 | 276.443 | 148 | 114 | 34 | 70 | 70 |
2 | Massey Consensus | 0.72857 | 0.48748 | 13.5983 | 1.2433 | 283.608 | 770 | 561 | 209 | 370 | 389 |
3 | Line (updated) | 0.71818 | 0.50000 | 12.6247 | 0.4247 | 245.711 | 770 | 553 | 217 | 165 | 165 |
4 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71688 | 0.50000 | 13.4558 | -0.1104 | 281.555 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 369 | 369 |
5 | Donchess Inference | 0.71688 | 0.47383 | 13.2899 | 0.2138 | 267.461 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 353 | 392 |
6 | Dokter Entropy | 0.71651 | 0.45971 | 13.1405 | 0.5041 | 262.208 | 769 | 551 | 218 | 348 | 409 |
7 | Laz Index | 0.71429 | 0.48681 | 13.1609 | 0.6398 | 263.527 | 770 | 550 | 220 | 369 | 389 |
8 | Payne W/L | 0.71299 | 0.47625 | 14.3145 | -0.7173 | 318.431 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 361 | 397 |
9 | Super List | 0.71299 | 0.49934 | 15.2931 | 1.5619 | 355.876 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 378 | 379 |
10 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71299 | 0.47674 | 12.6591 | 0.4734 | 246.306 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 205 | 225 |
11 | Line (Midweek) | 0.71169 | | 12.6429 | 0.4740 | 246.300 | 770 | 548 | 222 | | |
12 | Billingsley | 0.71169 | 0.48221 | 13.8826 | 0.1543 | 304.154 | 770 | 548 | 222 | 366 | 393 |
13 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.71039 | 0.49538 | 13.2086 | 1.1340 | 264.793 | 770 | 547 | 223 | 375 | 382 |
14 | Keeper | 0.71035 | 0.51531 | 13.4245 | 1.2305 | 283.635 | 763 | 542 | 221 | 387 | 364 |
15 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70909 | 0.49398 | 13.1366 | 1.0153 | 261.875 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 369 | 378 |
16 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.70909 | 0.47958 | 14.0244 | 0.5273 | 308.273 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 364 | 395 |
17 | Edward Kambour | 0.70909 | 0.48158 | 13.2806 | 0.6883 | 265.528 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 366 | 394 |
18 | Brent Craig | 0.70843 | 0.51942 | 13.0799 | 0.5354 | 263.541 | 415 | 294 | 121 | 214 | 198 |
19 | Howell | 0.70833 | 0.49389 | 13.5013 | -0.1457 | 282.844 | 768 | 544 | 224 | 364 | 373 |
20 | Line (opening) | 0.70779 | 0.50000 | 12.7526 | 0.2760 | 251.696 | 770 | 545 | 225 | 337 | 337 |
21 | System Average | 0.70649 | 0.48617 | 12.9646 | 0.5539 | 255.949 | 770 | 544 | 226 | 369 | 390 |
22 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70390 | 0.46711 | 13.6009 | -0.1149 | 286.661 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 355 | 405 |
23 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70390 | 0.48271 | 13.1130 | 0.7473 | 263.278 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 363 | 389 |
24 | David Harville | 0.70390 | 0.45910 | 13.1467 | 0.2825 | 262.413 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 348 | 410 |
25 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.70143 | 0.46764 | 13.3260 | 0.6634 | 271.270 | 767 | 538 | 229 | 354 | 403 |
26 | Laffaye RWP | 0.70141 | 0.50359 | 13.8664 | 0.2000 | 304.175 | 710 | 498 | 212 | 351 | 346 |
27 | System Median | 0.70130 | 0.47410 | 12.9598 | 0.5655 | 255.160 | 770 | 540 | 230 | 357 | 396 |
28 | ESPN FPI | 0.69870 | 0.46772 | 13.0218 | 1.1573 | 260.627 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 355 | 404 |
29 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.69870 | 0.50531 | 13.2049 | 1.0277 | 264.988 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 381 | 373 |
30 | Beck Elo | 0.69610 | 0.49474 | 13.4583 | 0.7619 | 284.370 | 770 | 536 | 234 | 376 | 384 |
31 | Bihl System | 0.69324 | 0.49392 | 13.0753 | 0.2528 | 258.480 | 414 | 287 | 127 | 203 | 208 |
32 | Roundtable | 0.69231 | 0.50198 | 13.6266 | 0.7186 | 293.881 | 533 | 369 | 164 | 253 | 251 |
33 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69221 | 0.47895 | 13.5677 | 0.4317 | 292.251 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 364 | 396 |
34 | Sagarin Points | 0.69221 | 0.45850 | 13.3517 | 0.2749 | 270.378 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 348 | 411 |
35 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.69221 | 0.48816 | 13.4232 | 0.6346 | 279.246 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 371 | 389 |
36 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69191 | 0.49589 | 13.9295 | 0.3133 | 304.002 | 766 | 530 | 236 | 362 | 368 |
37 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.44737 | 13.2541 | 0.2903 | 266.691 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 340 | 420 |
38 | Massey Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.48289 | 13.4370 | -0.0081 | 276.138 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 367 | 393 |
39 | Payne Predict | 0.69091 | 0.46316 | 13.8672 | 0.3339 | 301.146 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 352 | 408 |
40 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
41 | Talisman Red | 0.68994 | 0.49081 | 13.3432 | 0.1340 | 271.022 | 716 | 494 | 222 | 347 | 360 |
42 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68961 | 0.46711 | 13.8791 | 0.1010 | 298.036 | 770 | 531 | 239 | 355 | 405 |
43 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68831 | 0.50725 | 13.9070 | 1.0216 | 301.969 | 770 | 530 | 240 | 385 | 374 |
44 | Stat Fox | 0.68701 | 0.49038 | 13.4117 | 2.1963 | 274.644 | 770 | 529 | 241 | 357 | 371 |
45 | Born Power Index | 0.68442 | 0.48553 | 13.5410 | 1.2933 | 278.308 | 770 | 527 | 243 | 369 | 391 |
46 | Pigskin Index | 0.68312 | 0.50211 | 13.1947 | 0.9822 | 262.218 | 770 | 526 | 244 | 357 | 354 |
47 | FEI Projections | 0.68277 | 0.50412 | 13.0317 | 0.3315 | 257.875 | 621 | 424 | 197 | 306 | 301 |
48 | Dave Congrove | 0.68270 | 0.50528 | 13.7253 | 0.9936 | 288.525 | 769 | 525 | 244 | 383 | 375 |
49 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68182 | 0.46711 | 13.5186 | 0.3441 | 283.960 | 770 | 525 | 245 | 355 | 405 |
50 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
51 | Dunkel Index | 0.67630 | 0.49780 | 13.5055 | 1.3240 | 279.919 | 692 | 468 | 224 | 340 | 343 |
52 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.66883 | 0.47312 | 14.3228 | 0.8333 | 319.305 | 770 | 515 | 255 | 352 | 392 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
54 | Loudsound.org | 0.65395 | 0.47962 | 14.7039 | -2.9618 | 340.061 | 760 | 497 | 263 | 353 | 383 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases