Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Catherwood Ratings0.770270.5000013.74320.6351276.443148114347070
2Massey Consensus0.728570.4874813.59831.2433283.608770561209370389
3Line (updated)0.718180.5000012.62470.4247245.711770553217165165
4ARGH Power Ratings0.716880.5000013.4558-0.1104281.555770552218369369
5Donchess Inference0.716880.4738313.28990.2138267.461770552218353392
6Dokter Entropy0.716510.4597113.14050.5041262.208769551218348409
7Laz Index0.714290.4868113.16090.6398263.527770550220369389
8Payne W/L0.712990.4762514.3145-0.7173318.431770549221361397
9Super List0.712990.4993415.29311.5619355.876770549221378379
10Computer Adjusted Line0.712990.4767412.65910.4734246.306770549221205225
11Line (Midweek)0.7116912.64290.4740246.300770548222
12Billingsley0.711690.4822113.88260.1543304.154770548222366393
13PI-Rate Bias0.710390.4953813.20861.1340264.793770547223375382
14Keeper0.710350.5153113.42451.2305283.635763542221387364
15Pi-Ratings Mean0.709090.4939813.13661.0153261.875770546224369378
16PerformanZ Ratings0.709090.4795814.02440.5273308.273770546224364395
17Edward Kambour0.709090.4815813.28060.6883265.528770546224366394
18Brent Craig0.708430.5194213.07990.5354263.541415294121214198
19Howell0.708330.4938913.5013-0.1457282.844768544224364373
20Line (opening)0.707790.5000012.75260.2760251.696770545225337337
21System Average0.706490.4861712.96460.5539255.949770544226369390
22Payne Power Ratings0.703900.4671113.6009-0.1149286.661770542228355405
23TeamRankings.com0.703900.4827113.11300.7473263.278770542228363389
24David Harville0.703900.4591013.14670.2825262.413770542228348410
25Versus Sports Simulator0.701430.4676413.32600.6634271.270767538229354403
26Laffaye RWP0.701410.5035913.86640.2000304.175710498212351346
27System Median0.701300.4741012.95980.5655255.160770540230357396
28ESPN FPI0.698700.4677213.02181.1573260.627770538232355404
29Pi-Rate Ratings0.698700.5053113.20491.0277264.988770538232381373
30Beck Elo0.696100.4947413.45830.7619284.370770536234376384
31Bihl System0.693240.4939213.07530.2528258.480414287127203208
32Roundtable0.692310.5019813.62660.7186293.881533369164253251
33Sagarin Recent0.692210.4789513.56770.4317292.251770533237364396
34Sagarin Points0.692210.4585013.35170.2749270.378770533237348411
35Moore Power Ratings0.692210.4881613.42320.6346279.246770533237371389
36DP Dwiggins0.691910.4958913.92950.3133304.002766530236362368
37Sagarin Ratings0.690910.4473713.25410.2903266.691770532238340420
38Massey Ratings0.690910.4828913.4370-0.0081276.138770532238367393
39Payne Predict0.690910.4631613.86720.3339301.146770532238352408
40Linear Regression0.690770.4974713.19280.4825267.460401277124197199
41Talisman Red0.689940.4908113.34320.1340271.022716494222347360
42Daniel Curry Index0.689610.4671113.87910.1010298.036770531239355405
43Stephen Kerns0.688310.5072513.90701.0216301.969770530240385374
44Stat Fox0.687010.4903813.41172.1963274.644770529241357371
45Born Power Index0.684420.4855313.54101.2933278.308770527243369391
46Pigskin Index0.683120.5021113.19470.9822262.218770526244357354
47FEI Projections0.682770.5041213.03170.3315257.875621424197306301
48Dave Congrove0.682700.5052813.72530.9936288.525769525244383375
49Sagarin Golden Mean0.681820.4671113.51860.3441283.960770525245355405
50Logistic Regression0.678300.4722215.4058-2.1711369.469401272129187209
51Dunkel Index0.676300.4978013.50551.3240279.919692468224340343
52Cleanup Hitter0.668830.4731214.32280.8333319.305770515255352392
53Least Squares w/ HFA0.665840.5151515.65820.6268372.986401267134204192
54Loudsound.org0.653950.4796214.7039-2.9618340.061760497263353383

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases