ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2016 Season Totals

Through 2017-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Liam Bressler	0.73377	0.51552	12.8296	0.2884	272.786	616	452	164	299	281
2	Dokter Entropy	0.72930	0.52092	13.1592	-0.2165	286.456	761	555	206	386	355
3	Catherwood Ratings	0.72895	0.51464	13.5592	0.8066	300.714	760	554	206	369	348
4	CPA Rankings	0.72747	0.49781	13.7158	0.1451	306.041	466	339	127	227	229
5	Computer Adjusted Line	0.72559	0.53021	12.9169	0.2137	276.405	758	550	208	272	241
6	Atomic Football	0.72536	0.52211	13.2063	-0.4074	288.518	761	552	209	366	335
7	Sagarin Recent	0.72536	0.50336	13.3770	-0.2938	290.498	761	552	209	374	369
8	Line (updated)	0.72427	0.53846	12.8984	0.2612	276.082	758	549	209	252	216
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.72405	0.49191	13.3859	-0.2845	290.456	761	551	210	365	377
10	The Sports Cruncher	0.72293	0.53655	12.9710	-0.3927	286.245	711	514	197	367	317
11	System Median	0.72273	0.50956	13.1583	-0.0932	285.390	761	550	211	373	359
12	Pigskin Index	0.72273	0.50631	13.2366	-0.0746	288.539	761	550	211	361	352
13	ESPN FPI	0.72142	0.53369	13.1888	0.3284	287.999	761	549	212	396	346
14	PI-Rate Bias	0.72142	0.53045	13.2249	0.2936	285.484	761	549	212	392	347
15	Stat Fox	0.72142	0.50850	13.4257	1.0976	297.361	761	549	212	359	347
16	Born Power Index	0.72142	0.50674	13.6879	0.0522	304.852	761	549	212	376	366
17	Ashby AccuRatings	0.72105	0.52361	13.1961	-0.0327	288.890	760	548	212	366	333
18	Line (Midweek)	0.72032		12.9670	0.3311	278.934	758	546	212
19	Line (opening)	0.72032	0.50880	13.0139	0.1563	280.413	758	546	212	318	307
20	System Average	0.72011	0.51012	13.1610	-0.0907	285.154	761	548	213	378	363
21	Sagarin Ratings	0.72011	0.50674	13.3559	-0.2948	289.761	761	548	213	376	366
22	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.71879	0.53605	13.2855	0.4011	288.556	761	547	214	394	341
23	Sagarin Points	0.71879	0.50000	13.3936	-0.3239	292.239	761	547	214	371	371
24	Donchess Inference	0.71879	0.50949	13.3520	-0.2189	294.049	761	547	214	376	362
25	Moore Power Ratings	0.71879	0.53028	13.2512	-0.4200	289.777	761	547	214	394	349
26	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.71748	0.48234	13.4793	-0.0233	292.959	761	546	215	355	381
27	Dunkel Index	0.71748	0.48048	14.1953	0.2049	323.403	761	546	215	357	386
28	Brent Craig	0.71542	0.51081	13.5434	-0.1353	303.346	759	543	216	378	362
29	TeamRankings.com	0.71485	0.50474	13.3436	0.4093	294.437	761	544	217	373	366
30	CPA Retro	0.71459	0.48465	14.3012	-0.0577	322.941	466	333	133	221	235
31	Edward Kambour	0.71353	0.47914	13.7687	-0.2216	304.072	761	543	218	356	387
32	Daniel Curry Index	0.71353	0.50202	13.8161	0.1257	308.657	761	543	218	373	370
33	ThePowerRank.com	0.71316	0.52033	13.6710	-0.4521	309.149	760	542	218	384	354
34	Billingsley+	0.71222	0.48452	13.5654	-0.1815	300.540	761	542	219	360	383
35	DP Dwiggins	0.71202	0.48531	14.1268	-0.4491	320.343	757	539	218	347	368
36	ComPughter Ratings	0.71070	0.48784	13.9242	-0.2994	309.706	757	538	219	361	379
37	Keeper	0.71014	0.49326	14.2389	0.9879	330.342	759	539	220	366	376
38	Lee Burdorf	0.71014	0.53180	13.5625	-0.1898	305.734	759	539	220	393	346
39	Laz Index	0.70828	0.51348	14.0319	-0.6004	315.832	761	539	222	381	361
40	Massey Ratings	0.70828	0.53576	13.3559	-0.5595	296.576	761	539	222	397	344
41	Beck Elo	0.70565	0.48652	13.8170	-0.1846	307.307	761	537	224	361	381
42	Marsee	0.70565	0.49233	14.3075	1.8817	334.119	761	537	224	353	364
43	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70565	0.50275	13.8295	-0.7382	311.193	761	537	224	366	362
44	NutShell Sports	0.70434	0.51012	13.9582	-0.3327	320.074	761	536	225	378	363
45	Dave Congrove	0.70302	0.53774	13.5715	-0.3527	303.309	761	535	226	399	343
46	Payne Power Ratings	0.70171	0.49191	14.0644	-0.2422	320.333	761	534	227	365	377
47	FEI Projections	0.69789	0.48607	14.7546	0.2929	348.691	758	529	229	349	369
48	Massey Consensus	0.69777	0.51009	13.7626	0.2115	306.923	761	531	230	379	364
49	DirectorOfInformation	0.69777	0.46703	13.8219	0.2470	306.799	761	531	230	347	396
50	Billingsley	0.69777	0.50674	13.9907	-0.7739	323.791	761	531	230	376	366
51	Covers.com	0.69251	0.49865	14.3916	-0.9432	338.504	761	527	234	370	372
52	Howell	0.69120	0.49582	14.1826	-0.2351	330.621	761	526	235	356	362
53	Linear Regression	0.68828	0.47315	14.6661	-0.3842	343.397	401	276	125	185	206
54	Laffaye RWP	0.68659	0.51090	14.3166	-1.4644	339.568	753	517	236	375	359
55	PerformanZ Ratings	0.68594	0.48248	14.7272	-0.6452	348.575	761	522	239	358	384
56	Super List	0.68594	0.50202	15.3569	0.2208	376.486	761	522	239	372	369
57	Cleanup Hitter	0.68289	0.49930	14.3658	-0.1709	343.770	760	519	241	359	360
58	Stephen Kerns	0.68068	0.50204	14.5556	0.3596	344.170	761	518	243	369	366
59	Loudsound.org	0.67513	0.48870	15.4572	-4.5561	378.988	748	505	243	346	362
60	Bihl System	0.66889	0.48064	14.1643	0.9921	319.316	450	301	149	211	228
61	PointShare	0.66667	0.49062	15.3924	-0.9441	370.619	381	254	127	183	190
62	Logistic Regression	0.66085	0.50639	16.4432	-3.4017	416.977	401	265	136	198	193
63	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65337	0.52564	17.0239	-0.6736	476.472	401	262	139	205	185
64	Sportrends	0.65182	0.49359	14.6974	-0.1508	343.085	494	322	172	231	237


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases