Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
2Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
3Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
4Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
5Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
6Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
7Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
8Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
9Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
10Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
11David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
12Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
13Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
14DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
15Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
16Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
17ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
18FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
19Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
20Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
21Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
22Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
23Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
24Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
25Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
26Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
27Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
28Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
29Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
30Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
31Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
32Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
33Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
34Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
35PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
36PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
37Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
38Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
39Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
41Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
42Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
43Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
44Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
45Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
46System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
47System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
48Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
49TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
50Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
51Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases