Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
2Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
3Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
4Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
5Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
6Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
7Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
8Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
9Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
10Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
11Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
12ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
13Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
14Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
15CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
16CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
17Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
18Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
19DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
20Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
21Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
22Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
23Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
24FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
25Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
26Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
27Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
28Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
29Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
30Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
31Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
32Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
33Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
34Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
35Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
36Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
37Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
38Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
39Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
40Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
41MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
42Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
43NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
44Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
45Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
46NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
47Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
48PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
49PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
50Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
51Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
52Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
53PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
54Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
55Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
56Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
57Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
58Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
59Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
60Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
61Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
62Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
63System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
64System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
65Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
66ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
67Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
68Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
69Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases