Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
2Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
3Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
4Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
5Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
6Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
7Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
8Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
9Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
10Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
11Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
12Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
13ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
14Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
15Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
16CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
17CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
18Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
19Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
20DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
21Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
22Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
23DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
24Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
25Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
26FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
27Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
28Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
29Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
30Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
31Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
32Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
33Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
34Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
35Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
36Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
37Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
38Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
39Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
40Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
41Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
42Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
43MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
44Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
45NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
46Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
47Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
48NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
49Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
50PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
51PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
52Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
53Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
54Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
55PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
56Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
57Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
58Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
59Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
60Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
61Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
62Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
63Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
64Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
65Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
66System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
67System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
68Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
69ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
70Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
71Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
72Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases