Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
2Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
3Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
4Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
5Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
6Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
7Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
8Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
9Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
10Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
11David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
12Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
13Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
14DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
15Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
16Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
17ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
18FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
19Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
20Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
21Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
22Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
23Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
24Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
25Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
26Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
27Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
28Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
29Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
30Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
31Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
32Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
33PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
34PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
35Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
36Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
37Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
38Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
39Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
40Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
41Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
42Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
43Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
44Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
45System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
46System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
47Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
48TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
49Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
50Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases