Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.67526 | 0.47891 | 13.0938 | -0.0512 | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 |
2 | Beck Elo | 0.67784 | 0.48037 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 |
3 | Bihl System | 0.67317 | 0.48157 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 |
4 | Billingsley | 0.66452 | 0.50261 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 |
5 | Born Power Index | 0.69459 | 0.47917 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 |
6 | Brent Craig | 0.70330 | 0.45492 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 |
7 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67784 | 0.46143 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 |
8 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.64820 | 0.46996 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 |
9 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71392 | 0.46903 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 |
10 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68564 | 0.50065 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 |
11 | Dave Congrove | 0.68428 | 0.50717 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 |
12 | David Harville | 0.69459 | 0.50914 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 |
13 | Dokter Entropy | 0.70361 | 0.49086 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 |
14 | Donchess Inference | 0.70103 | 0.52185 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 |
15 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69290 | 0.48656 | 13.2723 | -0.9342 | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 |
16 | Dunkel Index | 0.69648 | 0.49631 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 |
17 | Edward Kambour | 0.68863 | 0.48564 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 |
18 | ESPN FPI | 0.70351 | 0.50526 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 |
19 | FEI Projections | 0.67572 | 0.49433 | 12.6622 | -1.6793 | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 |
20 | Howell | 0.67655 | 0.47684 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 |
21 | Keeper | 0.69548 | 0.52480 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 |
22 | Laffaye RWP | 0.68283 | 0.48039 | 13.5330 | -0.0155 | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 |
23 | Laz Index | 0.68863 | 0.51895 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 |
24 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
25 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72036 | | 12.0599 | 0.5664 | 234.538 | 776 | 559 | 217 | | |
26 | Line (opening) | 0.70619 | 0.50779 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 |
27 | Line (updated) | 0.71521 | 0.49280 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 |
28 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
29 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
30 | Loudsound.org | 0.66435 | 0.51679 | 13.9540 | -3.3022 | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 |
31 | Massey Consensus | 0.68170 | 0.47005 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 |
32 | Massey Ratings | 0.69716 | 0.53194 | 12.4786 | -0.0418 | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 |
33 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68000 | 0.48172 | 13.1106 | -0.0252 | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 |
34 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.68814 | 0.49479 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 |
35 | Payne Predict | 0.68428 | 0.47320 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 |
36 | Payne W/L | 0.65851 | 0.48956 | 13.5289 | -0.2410 | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 |
37 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66624 | 0.48568 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 |
38 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.70232 | 0.49020 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 |
39 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.71134 | 0.49211 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 |
40 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.71134 | 0.49208 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 |
41 | Pigskin Index | 0.70232 | 0.48971 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 |
42 | Roundtable | 0.68340 | 0.50298 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 |
43 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68041 | 0.50651 | 12.5151 | -0.0336 | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 |
44 | Sagarin Points | 0.68943 | 0.50392 | 12.5489 | -0.1454 | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 |
45 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.70747 | 0.50651 | 12.4622 | -0.1380 | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 |
46 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69974 | 0.49153 | 12.6528 | -0.0329 | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 |
47 | Stat Fox | 0.69010 | 0.49252 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 |
48 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69072 | 0.48429 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 |
49 | System Average | 0.68814 | 0.49935 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 |
50 | System Median | 0.69330 | 0.50859 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 |
51 | Talisman Red | 0.69201 | 0.52344 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 |
52 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70361 | 0.47895 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 |
53 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69728 | 0.47582 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 |
54 | Waywardtrends | 0.68428 | 0.51108 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases