Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-10-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.723580.5169513.7859-0.8482298.157369267102183171
2Beck Elo0.699190.4752713.84530.3903304.775369258111173191
3Bihl System0.627450.4705914.10900.2725284.5285132192427
4Billingsley0.701900.5041314.1357-0.4133317.301369259110183180
5Born Power Index0.699190.4752713.92701.2126288.664369258111173191
6Brent Craig0.666670.4902014.1392-1.1737299.1815134172526
7Catherwood Ratings0.770270.5000013.74320.6351276.443148114347070
8Cleanup Hitter0.685640.4777814.28190.7020322.348369253116172188
9Computer Adjusted Line0.726290.4913012.77780.2683248.714369268101113117
10Daniel Curry Index0.696480.4615414.5630-0.4518329.598369257112168196
11Dave Congrove0.704610.5109914.03620.8554300.188369260109186178
12David Harville0.718160.4517913.38170.0675270.463369265104164199
13Dokter Entropy0.742550.4533013.3326-0.0569262.21936927495165199
14Donchess Inference0.737130.4634813.4910-0.3945273.03236927297165191
15DP Dwiggins0.682070.4957514.8668-0.8288344.430368251117175178
16Dunkel Index0.687290.5052314.03851.4615304.32029120091145142
17Edward Kambour0.726290.4917613.63100.7205276.281369268101179185
18ESPN FPI0.707320.4642913.19550.9594262.707369261108169195
19FEI Projections0.674210.5140213.22810.3185262.49122114972110104
20Howell0.699190.5070413.9093-0.8088305.321369258111180175
21Keeper0.712330.5208913.57321.1017294.406365260105187172
22Laffaye RWP0.709590.5070014.1342-0.5723320.415365259106181176
23Laz Index0.734420.4779013.37370.4474268.92236927198173189
24Line (Midweek)0.7344212.74390.2859247.85036927198
25Line (opening)0.723580.4786612.8672-0.0136252.378369267102157171
26Line (updated)0.723580.5300512.74930.2263248.0573692671029786
27Loudsound.org0.622280.4833315.7880-3.9946402.652368229139174186
28Massey Consensus0.729000.5054913.78481.1364290.204369269100184180
29Massey Ratings0.712740.4972513.7107-0.5166290.063369263106181183
30Moore Power Ratings0.699190.4752713.60980.1048286.309369258111173191
31Payne Power Ratings0.704610.4670313.9989-0.3482305.002369260109170194
32Payne Predict0.672090.4368114.71560.0615339.940369248121159205
33Payne W/L0.710030.4835214.8618-1.3288346.486369262107176188
34PerformanZ Ratings0.688350.4738314.7224-0.3847339.966369254115172191
35PI-Rate Bias0.737130.4930713.33091.1883265.24936927297178183
36Pi-Rate Ratings0.723580.5097013.32391.0919265.791369267102184177
37Pi-Ratings Mean0.734420.5041813.16831.0122260.73236927198181178
38Pigskin Index0.696480.5145313.35771.0491263.383369257112177167
39Roundtable0.672730.4882614.90451.0591355.97222014872104109
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.688350.4725314.08810.2220313.762369254115172192
41Sagarin Points0.696480.4642913.72500.0905283.910369257112169195
42Sagarin Ratings0.699190.4587913.62860.1121281.396369258111167197
43Sagarin Recent0.701900.4725314.19080.3460326.850369259110172192
44Stat Fox0.710030.4827613.69381.9812281.237369262107168180
45Stephen Kerns0.682930.5164814.64141.0949343.744369252117188176
46Super List0.720870.4889515.42001.6295360.233369266103177185
47System Average0.723580.4710713.18020.2488262.160369267102171192
48System Median0.726290.4540413.12680.3254259.061369268101163196
49Talisman Red0.704400.5031813.6429-0.1258277.92731822494158156
50TeamRankings.com0.718160.4404413.39480.6513270.322369265104159202
51Versus Sports Simulator0.711170.4640913.53350.6210278.709367261106168194
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases