Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
2Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
3Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
4Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
5Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
6Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
7Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
8Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
9Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
10Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
11Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
12Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
13ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
14Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
15Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
16Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
17Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
18Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
19DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
20Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
21Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
22ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
23FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
24Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
25Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
26Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
27Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
28Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
29Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
30Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
31Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
32Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
33Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
34Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
35Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
36Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
37Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
38Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
39Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
40Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
41NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
42Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
43PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
44PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
45Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
46Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
47Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
48Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
49Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
50Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
51Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
52Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
53Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
54Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
55Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
56System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
57System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
58Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
59TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
60The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
61ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases