Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.721050.5028213.49511.0266285.106760548212357353
2Ashby AccuRatings0.728950.5072012.77900.7397260.553760554206352342
3Atomic Football0.722370.5099712.89971.1315265.172760549211358344
4Beck Elo0.701280.4905113.73050.8736291.916703493210336349
5Bihl System0.690830.4945113.49131.1259282.167469324145225230
6Billingsley0.718420.5189213.58350.0035299.722760546214384356
7Billingsley+0.731580.5216213.17330.3666279.161760556204386354
8Born Power Index0.711840.4973013.89170.9360302.254760541219368372
9Brent Craig0.703170.4816813.51861.3501284.228758533225355382
10Brent Craig 20.730880.4781313.29414.5184281.04835325895164179
11Catherwood Ratings0.720320.5014013.67811.5831296.065758546212357355
12Cleanup Hitter0.706720.5059014.17612.3361336.343699494205343335
13ComPughter Ratings0.708440.5027113.33540.4806280.579758537221371367
14Computer Adjusted Line0.735530.5132312.50661.2500250.262760559201291276
15Covers.com0.698680.5286913.7098-0.2118303.723760531229387345
16CPA Rankings0.734210.5027013.22780.4700273.204760558202372368
17CPA Retro0.686840.4891914.21340.2496312.580760522238362378
18Daniel Curry Index0.714100.4993214.31450.8363323.839759542217368369
19Dave Congrove0.732890.4891913.75050.3377306.783760557203362378
20DirectorOfInformation0.726320.4973013.02800.5673271.395760552208368372
21Dokter Entropy0.730260.4966212.77481.2805257.344760555205367372
22Donchess Inference0.697890.5047513.46600.2313286.376758529229372365
23DP Dwiggins0.749350.4517913.67621.4726293.43038328796164199
24Dunkel Index0.726550.5047513.58281.4209303.465757550207372365
25Edward Kambour0.722300.5006913.32391.1352282.256749541208365364
26FEI Projections0.687750.5098313.77470.1225302.117759522237363349
27Howell0.705800.5106713.64050.6208294.962758535223359344
28Keeper0.711080.4850913.74012.0397291.578758539219358380
29Laffaye RWP0.700000.5405413.8757-1.5578311.392760532228400340
30Laffaye XWP0.692110.4782616.52096.7767425.075760526234352384
31Laz Index0.709210.5108113.23910.2984276.767760539221378362
32Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
33Lee Burdorf0.712400.4938813.65390.8791292.789758540218363372
34Line (Midweek)0.7326212.49731.2580252.051748548200
35Line (opening)0.720320.5225812.55470.9453251.703758546212324296
36Line (updated)0.736840.5233512.47701.3191249.765760560200269245
37Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
38Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
39Loudsound.org0.690770.5639713.5236-3.1740303.556401277124216167
40Marsee0.698680.4777813.99212.6526307.843760531229344376
41Massey Consensus0.726320.5189213.21871.0745277.300760552208384356
42Massey Ratings0.703880.5079913.2848-0.0307282.541618435183286277
43MDS Model0.708210.5045213.89810.0988309.047682483199335329
44Moore Power Ratings0.717310.4904913.68381.1843297.639757543214361375
45NutShell Combo0.708620.5098413.44950.4232290.404580411169285274
46Nutshell Eye0.687930.5054313.54810.5517294.092580399181279273
47Nutshell Girl0.711910.4800613.78950.8216306.373722514208337365
48NutShell Sports0.708440.5103414.00850.0378316.792758537221370355
49Payne Power Ratings0.728590.5162613.35950.3545282.559759553206381357
50PerformanZ Ratings0.698680.5027013.86220.7613302.269760531229372368
51PI-Rate Bias0.718420.5313412.93250.9499266.871760546214390344
52Pi-Rate Ratings0.722370.5359612.95601.0500269.513760549211395342
53Pi-Ratings Mean0.717110.5382512.81050.6926260.100760545215394338
54Pigskin Index0.732890.5100312.96580.5319268.003760557203356342
55PointShare0.655170.5089613.8665-0.0945302.334580380200284274
56Randal Horobik0.734350.4780213.73601.1337291.875591434157261285
57Regression Based Analys0.724460.4784113.89162.3003309.165646468178288314
58Sagarin Golden Mean0.726320.5027013.39051.2257281.650760552208372368
59Sagarin Points0.728950.4857913.01631.3367271.817760554206359380
60Sagarin Points Elo0.725000.5061113.51981.0935289.009760551209373364
61Sagarin Ratings0.734210.4966213.07981.2648270.887760558202367372
62Sportrends0.685160.5134714.33730.0255332.841667457210324307
63Stat Fox0.728950.4943513.37111.8056285.530760554206350358
64Stephen Kerns0.705160.4872513.7344-0.0158293.368736519217344362
65Super List0.690790.5331514.55720.9633335.618760525235394345
66System Average0.722370.5081312.85530.8323262.563760549211375363
67System Median0.730260.5151512.82450.8342261.095760555205374352
68Tempo Free Gridiron0.713620.5258913.6579-1.2368309.315646461185325293
69ThePowerRank.com0.704850.5034713.10380.4475274.416742523219363358
70Thompson ATS0.736840.5067612.62680.9076253.703760560200375365
71Thompson Average0.731580.5027212.70091.0303256.739760556204370366
72Thompson CAL0.739470.5081112.57491.1438251.332760562198376364
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases