Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
2Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
3Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
4Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
5Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
6Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
7Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
8Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
9David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
10Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
11Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
12Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
13Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
14ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
15FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
16Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
17Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
18Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
19Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
20Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
21Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
22Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
23Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
24Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
25Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
26Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
27PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
28PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
29Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
30Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
31Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
32Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
33Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
34Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
35Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
36Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
37Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
38Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
39System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
40System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
41Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
42TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
43ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
44Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases