Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
2Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
3Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
4Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
5Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
6Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
7Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
8Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
9Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
10Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
11Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
12Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
13TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
14Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
15PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
16Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
17Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
18Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
19ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
20Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
21David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
22Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
23DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
24Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
25Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
26Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
27ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
28System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
29Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
30Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
31Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
32Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
33System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
35Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
36Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
37Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
38Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
39PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
40Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
41Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
42Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
43Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
44Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
45Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
46Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
47Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
48Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
49Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
50FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases