Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Season Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Massey Consensus | 0.72857 | 0.48748 | 13.5983 | 1.2433 | 283.608 | 770 | 561 | 209 | 370 | 389 |
2 | Line (updated) | 0.71818 | 0.50000 | 12.6247 | 0.4247 | 245.711 | 770 | 553 | 217 | 165 | 165 |
3 | Donchess Inference | 0.71688 | 0.47383 | 13.2899 | 0.2138 | 267.461 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 353 | 392 |
4 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71688 | 0.50000 | 13.4558 | -0.1104 | 281.555 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 369 | 369 |
5 | Dokter Entropy | 0.71651 | 0.45971 | 13.1405 | 0.5041 | 262.208 | 769 | 551 | 218 | 348 | 409 |
6 | Laz Index | 0.71429 | 0.48681 | 13.1609 | 0.6398 | 263.527 | 770 | 550 | 220 | 369 | 389 |
7 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71299 | 0.47674 | 12.6591 | 0.4734 | 246.306 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 205 | 225 |
8 | Payne W/L | 0.71299 | 0.47625 | 14.3145 | -0.7173 | 318.431 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 361 | 397 |
9 | Super List | 0.71299 | 0.49934 | 15.2931 | 1.5619 | 355.876 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 378 | 379 |
10 | Line (Midweek) | 0.71169 | | 12.6429 | 0.4740 | 246.300 | 770 | 548 | 222 | | |
11 | Billingsley | 0.71169 | 0.48221 | 13.8826 | 0.1543 | 304.154 | 770 | 548 | 222 | 366 | 393 |
12 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.71039 | 0.49538 | 13.2086 | 1.1340 | 264.793 | 770 | 547 | 223 | 375 | 382 |
13 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.70909 | 0.47958 | 14.0244 | 0.5273 | 308.273 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 364 | 395 |
14 | Edward Kambour | 0.70909 | 0.48158 | 13.2806 | 0.6883 | 265.528 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 366 | 394 |
15 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70909 | 0.49398 | 13.1366 | 1.0153 | 261.875 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 369 | 378 |
16 | Line (opening) | 0.70779 | 0.50000 | 12.7526 | 0.2760 | 251.696 | 770 | 545 | 225 | 337 | 337 |
17 | Howell | 0.70833 | 0.49389 | 13.5013 | -0.1457 | 282.844 | 768 | 544 | 224 | 364 | 373 |
18 | System Average | 0.70649 | 0.48617 | 12.9646 | 0.5539 | 255.949 | 770 | 544 | 226 | 369 | 390 |
19 | Keeper | 0.71035 | 0.51531 | 13.4245 | 1.2305 | 283.635 | 763 | 542 | 221 | 387 | 364 |
20 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70390 | 0.48271 | 13.1130 | 0.7473 | 263.278 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 363 | 389 |
21 | David Harville | 0.70390 | 0.45910 | 13.1467 | 0.2825 | 262.413 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 348 | 410 |
22 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70390 | 0.46711 | 13.6009 | -0.1149 | 286.661 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 355 | 405 |
23 | System Median | 0.70130 | 0.47410 | 12.9598 | 0.5655 | 255.160 | 770 | 540 | 230 | 357 | 396 |
24 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.70143 | 0.46764 | 13.3260 | 0.6634 | 271.270 | 767 | 538 | 229 | 354 | 403 |
25 | ESPN FPI | 0.69870 | 0.46772 | 13.0218 | 1.1573 | 260.627 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 355 | 404 |
26 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.69870 | 0.50531 | 13.2049 | 1.0277 | 264.988 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 381 | 373 |
27 | Beck Elo | 0.69610 | 0.49474 | 13.4583 | 0.7619 | 284.370 | 770 | 536 | 234 | 376 | 384 |
28 | Sagarin Points | 0.69221 | 0.45850 | 13.3517 | 0.2749 | 270.378 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 348 | 411 |
29 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69221 | 0.47895 | 13.5677 | 0.4317 | 292.251 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 364 | 396 |
30 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.69221 | 0.48816 | 13.4232 | 0.6346 | 279.246 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 371 | 389 |
31 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.44737 | 13.2541 | 0.2903 | 266.691 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 340 | 420 |
32 | Massey Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.48289 | 13.4370 | -0.0081 | 276.138 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 367 | 393 |
33 | Payne Predict | 0.69091 | 0.46316 | 13.8672 | 0.3339 | 301.146 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 352 | 408 |
34 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68961 | 0.46711 | 13.8791 | 0.1010 | 298.036 | 770 | 531 | 239 | 355 | 405 |
35 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69191 | 0.49589 | 13.9295 | 0.3133 | 304.002 | 766 | 530 | 236 | 362 | 368 |
36 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68831 | 0.50725 | 13.9070 | 1.0216 | 301.969 | 770 | 530 | 240 | 385 | 374 |
37 | Stat Fox | 0.68701 | 0.49038 | 13.4117 | 2.1963 | 274.644 | 770 | 529 | 241 | 357 | 371 |
38 | Born Power Index | 0.68442 | 0.48553 | 13.5410 | 1.2933 | 278.308 | 770 | 527 | 243 | 369 | 391 |
39 | Pigskin Index | 0.68312 | 0.50211 | 13.1947 | 0.9822 | 262.218 | 770 | 526 | 244 | 357 | 354 |
40 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68182 | 0.46711 | 13.5186 | 0.3441 | 283.960 | 770 | 525 | 245 | 355 | 405 |
41 | Dave Congrove | 0.68270 | 0.50528 | 13.7253 | 0.9936 | 288.525 | 769 | 525 | 244 | 383 | 375 |
42 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.66883 | 0.47312 | 14.3228 | 0.8333 | 319.305 | 770 | 515 | 255 | 352 | 392 |
43 | Laffaye RWP | 0.70141 | 0.50359 | 13.8664 | 0.2000 | 304.175 | 710 | 498 | 212 | 351 | 346 |
44 | Loudsound.org | 0.65395 | 0.47962 | 14.7039 | -2.9618 | 340.061 | 760 | 497 | 263 | 353 | 383 |
45 | Talisman Red | 0.68994 | 0.49081 | 13.3432 | 0.1340 | 271.022 | 716 | 494 | 222 | 347 | 360 |
46 | Dunkel Index | 0.67630 | 0.49780 | 13.5055 | 1.3240 | 279.919 | 692 | 468 | 224 | 340 | 343 |
47 | FEI Projections | 0.68277 | 0.50412 | 13.0317 | 0.3315 | 257.875 | 621 | 424 | 197 | 306 | 301 |
48 | Roundtable | 0.69231 | 0.50198 | 13.6266 | 0.7186 | 293.881 | 533 | 369 | 164 | 253 | 251 |
49 | Brent Craig | 0.70843 | 0.51942 | 13.0799 | 0.5354 | 263.541 | 415 | 294 | 121 | 214 | 198 |
50 | Bihl System | 0.69324 | 0.49392 | 13.0753 | 0.2528 | 258.480 | 414 | 287 | 127 | 203 | 208 |
51 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
52 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
54 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.77027 | 0.50000 | 13.7432 | 0.6351 | 276.443 | 148 | 114 | 34 | 70 | 70 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases