Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
2PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
3Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
4Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
5Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
6Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
7Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
8System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
9Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
10Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
11Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
12Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
13ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
14Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
15Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
16David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
17System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
18TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
19Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
20Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
21Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
22Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
23Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
24Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
25Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
26Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
27Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
28Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
29Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
30Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
31Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
32ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
33Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
34PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
35Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
36Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
37Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
38DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
39Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
40Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
41Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
42Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
43Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
44Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
45FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
46Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
47Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
48Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
49ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases