Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
2TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
3System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
4David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
5Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
6Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
7FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
8System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
9Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
10Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
11Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
12Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
13PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
14Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
15Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
16Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
17Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
18Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
19PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
20Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
21ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
22Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
23Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
24Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
25Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
26Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
27Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
28Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
29Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
30Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
31Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
32Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
33Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
34Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
35Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
36ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
37Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
38Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
39Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
40Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
41Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
42Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
43Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
44Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases