Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
2Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
3Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
4Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
5TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
6Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
7Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
8ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
9Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
10System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
11ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
12Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
13Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
14Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
15System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
16ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
17ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
18Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
19Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
20Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
21Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
22Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
23Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
24Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
25PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
26The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
27Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
28Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
29Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
30Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
31Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
32Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
33DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
34Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
35Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
36Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
37Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
38Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
39Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
40Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
41Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
42Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
43PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
44Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
45Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
46Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
47NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
48Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
49Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
50Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
51Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
52Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
53Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
54Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
55Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
56Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
57Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
58Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
59Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
60FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
61Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases