Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2011 Season Totals

Through 2012-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Tempo Free Gridiron0.738460.5139513.0923-2.2559275.028715528187350331
2Covers.com0.738460.5317012.5168-0.8890251.875715528187369325
3Dunkel Index0.738100.5552412.3190-0.1385244.870714527187392314
4Line (opening)0.734270.5175712.1308-0.4231232.140715525190324302
5Sagarin0.734270.5063612.6964-0.8040254.763715525190358349
6Computer Adjusted Line0.732870.5137612.0133-0.2566226.512715524191112106
7Line (updated)0.7328712.0147-0.1909226.860715524191
8System Average0.732870.4893912.2337-0.6421235.493715524191346361
9Dokter Entropy0.732870.4758512.4210-0.0919239.776715524191335369
10Hank Trexler0.732490.4992512.5098-2.1961248.787714523191335336
11System Median0.731470.5079112.1874-0.6284234.246715523192353342
12Ashby AccuRatings0.731470.5188012.3007-0.8317236.688715523192345320
13Catherwood Ratings0.731470.4792912.59300.3329249.407715523192324352
14Howell0.731470.5044112.6706-0.9083252.541715523192343337
15Moore Power Ratings0.730070.5205112.3958-0.6944249.083715522193368339
16Stat Fox0.730070.4791712.55950.4814248.750715522193322350
17Edward Kambour0.728670.5014212.6830-0.3835254.024715521194354352
18NutShell Sports0.728670.5248213.7991-0.2042306.605715521194370335
19Pigskin Index0.727270.5067712.2895-0.7927238.076715520195337328
20Pi-Rate Ratings0.726890.5200012.5895-0.0388251.853714519195364336
21Regression-Based Analys0.724480.5128213.00840.4182268.664715518197340323
22CPA Rankings0.724480.4815913.1876-0.0608266.174715518197340366
23Super List0.724480.4964614.16290.1096312.194715518197351356
24Sagarin Predictive0.723080.4752512.6601-0.7101249.436715517198336371
25Laz Index0.723080.4631712.6641-1.0618250.244715517198327379
26Born Power Index0.723080.5155812.7746-0.6030258.575715517198364342
27Laffaye RWP0.723080.4823214.1403-3.9006317.591715517198341366
28Brent Craig0.722690.5056712.4026-0.0460248.306714516198357349
29Marsee0.722690.4971013.31651.0084277.860714516198343347
30ARGH Power Ratings0.721290.5066512.4800-0.5249248.054714515199343334
31Massey Consensus0.718880.4900812.9129-0.3880262.139715514201346360
32Warren Claassen0.717480.4908113.4227-1.3066283.242715513202347360
33Dave Congrove0.717480.5318212.4172-1.0654243.885715513202376331
34Sagarin Elo0.716080.5120613.3773-0.8807285.917715512203361344
35Beck Elo0.714690.4886712.8294-0.5951261.478715511204345361
36Laffaye XWP0.714690.4900313.6109-2.7770295.344715511204344358
37Nutshell Girl0.714690.4936413.7934-1.4808300.910715511204349358
38Billingsley+0.713290.4936412.6477-0.7910249.902715510205349358
39PerformanZ Ratings0.713290.4943313.6267-0.6644285.611715510205349357
40Atomic Football0.711890.5049512.3180-0.4774238.527715509206357350
41Payne Power Ratings0.711890.4639313.1180-0.1259265.730715509206328379
42Keeper0.711890.5007113.39800.5547282.987715509206351350
43Lee Burdorf0.710490.4985812.8484-0.6791261.331715508207351353
44Billingsley0.709090.5155813.1573-0.7332276.873715507208364342
45Massey Ratings0.709090.4787512.6193-0.3081249.940715507208338368
46Compughter Ratings0.731490.4632413.0045-1.1448257.441689504185315365
47Stephen Kerns0.724490.4449413.5052-0.7895278.254686497189299373
48Sportrends0.705970.5059013.4091-0.9134286.859704497207343335
49CPA Retro0.695100.5091913.6356-0.2707294.315715497218360347
50DP Dwiggins0.730880.4888213.0247-3.6504266.116680497183328343
51NutShell Combo0.728890.4955113.0385-0.7936269.740675492183331337
52Bassett Model0.709770.4809713.26660.2193270.110665472193316341
53NationalSportsRankings0.726980.4984012.3852-0.5440242.210630458172311313
54Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.705410.4943613.0182-0.7282265.886628443185307314
55Betgrinders.com0.726370.5292112.2997-0.5388231.751603438165308274
56Pointshare Ratings0.693630.5017513.85221.0425303.568581403178286284
57CF By the Numbers0.682130.4926213.07040.0258261.782582397185267275
58Bihl System0.704920.5035612.5864-0.4074246.008427301126212209
59Colley Rankings *0.705260.5253312.9895-1.3711268.107380268112197178
60Martien Maas0.705260.5333316.5842-0.6973431.091380268112200175
61Anderson/Hester *0.705260.5226712.9407-1.3138268.741380268112196179
62Bias Free Rankings0.707120.4933012.9153-1.5560256.136379268111184189
63Massey *0.700000.5306713.0379-1.0785275.920380266114199176
64Wolfe *0.700000.5120013.2549-0.8268281.214380266114192183
65Linear Regression0.697370.4906712.9274-0.9330258.805380265115184191
66Logistic Regression0.697370.5253314.8958-4.5280371.237380265115197178
67Least Squares w/ HFA0.673680.5200015.4754-0.2857388.178380256124195180
68football.loudsound.org0.704350.5015413.4145-5.0261284.157345243102163162
69TW Rankings0.000000.0000025.0000-25.0000625.00010101
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases