Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Second Half Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Roundtable | 0.69966 | 0.49825 | 12.7270 | 0.8498 | 267.250 | 293 | 205 | 88 | 142 | 143 |
2 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
3 | Brent Craig | 0.69722 | 0.48459 | 12.7496 | 1.7930 | 271.689 | 360 | 251 | 109 | 173 | 184 |
4 | Loudsound.org | 0.68857 | 0.53659 | 12.7886 | -1.6800 | 271.466 | 350 | 241 | 109 | 176 | 152 |
5 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
6 | Bihl System | 0.68802 | 0.47472 | 12.7996 | 1.0667 | 268.819 | 359 | 247 | 112 | 169 | 187 |
7 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70823 | 0.49100 | 12.3065 | 1.2143 | 257.356 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 191 | 198 |
8 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.49361 | 12.3947 | 1.2003 | 261.324 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 193 | 198 |
9 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
10 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.69327 | 0.48608 | 12.4667 | 1.2967 | 262.545 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 192 | 203 |
11 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.48092 | 12.4025 | 0.7067 | 258.742 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 189 | 204 |
12 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69077 | 0.51385 | 12.3537 | 0.3741 | 254.033 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 193 |
13 | Dunkel Index | 0.68687 | 0.51276 | 12.8034 | 1.4600 | 279.992 | 396 | 272 | 124 | 201 | 191 |
14 | Line (updated) | 0.69077 | 0.48795 | 12.1696 | 0.9352 | 245.637 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 81 | 85 |
15 | Pigskin Index | 0.68828 | 0.50928 | 12.5860 | 1.1550 | 268.728 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 192 | 185 |
16 | Line (Midweek) | 0.68828 | | 12.1658 | 0.8865 | 246.572 | 401 | 276 | 125 | | |
17 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.68828 | 0.49780 | 12.1746 | 0.9401 | 246.707 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 113 | 114 |
18 | Dokter Entropy | 0.68828 | 0.50253 | 12.3029 | 1.3881 | 253.666 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 199 | 197 |
19 | Keeper | 0.68750 | 0.51646 | 12.8292 | 2.1349 | 272.116 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 204 | 191 |
20 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68342 | 0.51523 | 12.8351 | 0.8798 | 277.612 | 398 | 272 | 126 | 203 | 191 |
21 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68579 | 0.53046 | 12.6303 | 1.3528 | 267.524 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 209 | 185 |
22 | FEI Projections | 0.68579 | 0.51015 | 12.5154 | -1.2731 | 260.921 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 201 | 193 |
23 | ESPN FPI | 0.68579 | 0.51889 | 12.3418 | 1.5017 | 256.291 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 206 | 191 |
24 | Edward Kambour | 0.68329 | 0.51134 | 12.4024 | 0.9204 | 257.449 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 203 | 194 |
25 | System Median | 0.68329 | 0.50891 | 12.2863 | 1.0033 | 254.703 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 200 | 193 |
26 | Donchess Inference | 0.68080 | 0.52163 | 12.3888 | 1.2311 | 253.483 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 205 | 188 |
27 | Laz Index | 0.67920 | 0.53046 | 12.5239 | 1.1060 | 258.874 | 399 | 271 | 128 | 209 | 185 |
28 | Howell | 0.68080 | 0.48670 | 13.0873 | 1.2844 | 287.375 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 183 | 193 |
29 | Massey Ratings | 0.68080 | 0.54408 | 12.4326 | 0.5710 | 259.567 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 216 | 181 |
30 | Line (opening) | 0.68080 | 0.51506 | 12.1858 | 0.9214 | 248.344 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 171 | 161 |
31 | Dave Congrove | 0.67830 | 0.50758 | 12.6351 | 1.2525 | 273.307 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 201 | 195 |
32 | Sagarin Recent | 0.67830 | 0.52141 | 12.4430 | 0.3165 | 257.696 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 207 | 190 |
33 | Born Power Index | 0.67830 | 0.48866 | 12.7783 | 1.4112 | 275.438 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 203 |
34 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67830 | 0.49874 | 12.3747 | 0.5489 | 257.745 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 198 | 199 |
35 | David Harville | 0.67830 | 0.51899 | 12.3732 | 0.7194 | 258.638 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 205 | 190 |
36 | System Average | 0.67830 | 0.49495 | 12.3219 | 1.0654 | 255.928 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 196 | 200 |
37 | Laffaye RWP | 0.67830 | 0.49622 | 12.8430 | 1.2225 | 277.720 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 197 | 200 |
38 | Stat Fox | 0.67581 | 0.49606 | 12.7732 | 2.4193 | 275.892 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 189 | 192 |
39 | Talisman Red | 0.67581 | 0.53149 | 12.6589 | 0.6449 | 269.413 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 211 | 186 |
40 | DP Dwiggins | 0.67500 | 0.51181 | 12.8200 | -0.3600 | 273.570 | 400 | 270 | 130 | 195 | 186 |
41 | Massey Consensus | 0.67581 | 0.49874 | 13.0219 | 1.7170 | 287.824 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 198 | 199 |
42 | Beck Elo | 0.67581 | 0.47583 | 12.7865 | 1.6138 | 278.086 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 187 | 206 |
43 | Payne Predict | 0.67332 | 0.47475 | 12.9410 | 1.0327 | 283.334 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 188 | 208 |
44 | Billingsley | 0.67332 | 0.51134 | 12.8153 | 1.1215 | 277.332 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 203 | 194 |
45 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.67332 | 0.49370 | 12.8127 | 0.8145 | 277.013 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 196 | 201 |
46 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.67332 | 0.49118 | 12.7174 | 1.0186 | 270.507 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 195 | 202 |
47 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47607 | 12.8968 | 0.7591 | 277.022 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 189 | 208 |
48 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47721 | 12.9551 | 2.3965 | 283.654 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 178 | 195 |
49 | Waywardtrends | 0.66833 | 0.54798 | 12.4554 | 1.4761 | 263.560 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 217 | 179 |
50 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.52141 | 13.6989 | 1.9048 | 305.681 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 207 | 190 |
51 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.48148 | 12.7731 | 0.8953 | 272.858 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 182 | 196 |
52 | Sagarin Points | 0.66584 | 0.51889 | 12.4593 | 0.3785 | 255.950 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 206 | 191 |
53 | Payne W/L | 0.65087 | 0.50253 | 13.1545 | 0.6977 | 291.661 | 401 | 261 | 140 | 199 | 197 |
54 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.62095 | 0.48837 | 13.5960 | 0.9279 | 298.045 | 401 | 249 | 152 | 189 | 198 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases