ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2023-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66225	0.53512	14.3719	1.5603	327.602	302	200	102	160	139
2	Linear Regression	0.68481	0.49565	12.8546	1.3205	278.097	349	239	110	171	174
3	Logistic Regression	0.64756	0.53623	14.2849	-0.8567	362.924	349	226	123	185	160
4	Bihl System	0.67317	0.48157	12.8694	0.7020	271.105	410	276	134	196	211
5	Roundtable	0.68340	0.50298	13.0444	0.5502	279.380	518	354	164	253	250
6	FEI Projections	0.67572	0.49433	12.6622	-1.6793	261.959	626	423	203	305	312
7	Dunkel Index	0.69648	0.49631	13.0713	1.2361	279.665	682	475	207	336	341
8	Brent Craig	0.70330	0.45492	12.6782	1.2032	256.102	728	512	216	328	393
9	Line (Midweek)	0.72036		12.0599	0.5664	234.538	776	559	217
10	Line (updated)	0.71521	0.49280	12.0651	0.6012	233.847	776	555	221	171	176
11	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71392	0.46903	12.0921	0.5844	234.884	776	554	222	212	240
12	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.71134	0.49208	12.3640	0.9370	246.959	776	552	224	373	385
13	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.71134	0.49211	12.4384	1.0485	251.072	776	552	224	374	386
14	Sagarin Ratings	0.70747	0.50651	12.4622	-0.1380	249.689	776	549	227	389	379
15	ESPN FPI	0.70351	0.50526	12.2733	0.9943	244.335	769	541	228	384	376
16	Line (opening)	0.70619	0.50779	12.0805	0.6617	236.294	776	548	228	326	316
17	Laffaye RWP	0.68283	0.48039	13.5330	-0.0155	291.424	722	493	229	343	371
18	Dokter Entropy	0.70361	0.49086	12.2791	1.0174	243.062	776	546	230	376	390
19	TeamRankings.com	0.70361	0.47895	12.3957	0.2530	249.400	776	546	230	364	396
20	Pigskin Index	0.70232	0.48971	12.5657	1.0377	255.484	776	545	231	357	372
21	PI-Rate Bias	0.70232	0.49020	12.4605	1.0799	251.311	776	545	231	375	390
22	Donchess Inference	0.70103	0.52185	12.4516	0.4972	250.995	776	544	232	394	361
23	Sagarin Recent	0.69974	0.49153	12.6528	-0.0329	257.407	776	543	233	377	390
24	Versus Sports Simulator	0.69728	0.47582	12.7339	0.7699	262.842	773	539	234	364	401
25	Massey Ratings	0.69716	0.53194	12.4786	-0.0418	251.724	776	541	235	408	359
26	Keeper	0.69548	0.52480	13.1567	1.6739	279.270	775	539	236	402	364
27	David Harville	0.69459	0.50914	12.4966	0.0855	253.125	776	539	237	390	376
28	Born Power Index	0.69459	0.47917	13.0384	1.2843	276.156	776	539	237	368	400
29	Stat Fox	0.69010	0.49252	12.7449	2.0602	262.238	768	530	238	362	373
30	System Median	0.69330	0.50859	12.3608	0.5109	246.750	776	538	238	385	372
31	DP Dwiggins	0.69290	0.48656	13.2723	-0.9342	283.183	775	537	238	362	382
32	Talisman Red	0.69201	0.52344	12.9252	0.2529	271.807	776	537	239	402	366
33	Stephen Kerns	0.69072	0.48429	13.8967	0.7545	312.164	776	536	240	370	394
34	Laz Index	0.68863	0.51895	12.8401	0.4397	263.631	774	533	241	397	368
35	Sagarin Points	0.68943	0.50392	12.5489	-0.1454	253.307	776	535	241	386	380
36	Loudsound.org	0.66435	0.51679	13.9540	-3.3022	309.256	718	477	241	354	331
37	Edward Kambour	0.68863	0.48564	12.6617	0.5814	259.395	774	533	241	372	394
38	Payne Power Ratings	0.68814	0.49479	12.8681	0.2151	267.004	776	534	242	380	388
39	System Average	0.68814	0.49935	12.4338	0.5424	248.770	776	534	242	383	384
40	Daniel Curry Index	0.68564	0.50065	13.1672	0.7610	280.958	773	530	243	383	382
41	Waywardtrends	0.68428	0.51108	12.7776	0.8167	264.981	776	531	245	392	375
42	Dave Congrove	0.68428	0.50717	12.9343	0.9805	267.934	776	531	245	389	378
43	Payne Predict	0.68428	0.47320	13.1513	0.7929	278.935	776	531	245	362	403
44	Massey Consensus	0.68170	0.47005	13.0411	1.4341	279.200	776	529	247	361	407
45	Moore Power Ratings	0.68000	0.48172	13.1106	-0.0252	276.591	775	527	248	369	397
46	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.68041	0.50651	12.5151	-0.0336	253.531	776	528	248	389	379
47	Catherwood Ratings	0.67784	0.46143	13.2668	1.9858	281.530	776	526	250	341	398
48	Beck Elo	0.67784	0.48037	13.1371	0.8316	277.478	776	526	250	367	397
49	Howell	0.67655	0.47684	13.4124	0.2463	294.056	776	525	251	350	384
50	ARGH Power Ratings	0.67526	0.47891	13.0938	-0.0512	276.669	776	524	252	352	383
51	PerformanZ Ratings	0.66624	0.48568	14.0026	0.9886	310.134	776	517	259	373	395
52	Billingsley	0.66452	0.50261	13.4379	0.1611	292.406	775	515	260	385	381
53	Payne W/L	0.65851	0.48956	13.5289	-0.2410	295.208	776	511	265	375	391
54	Cleanup Hitter	0.64820	0.46996	14.0045	0.5626	310.485	776	503	273	352	397


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases