Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
2Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
3Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
4Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
5Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
6PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
7Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
8Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
9Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
10Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
11Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
12Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
13Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
14Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
15System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
16Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
17Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
18ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
19Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
20Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
21David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
22System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
23TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
24Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
25Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
26Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
27Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
28Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
29Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
30Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
31Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
32Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
33Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
34Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
35Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
36ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
37PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
38Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
39Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
40Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
41DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
42Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
43Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
44Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
45Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
46Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
47Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
48FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
49Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases