Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
2Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
3Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
4Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
5Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
6Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
7Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
8Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
9The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
10Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
11Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
12Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
13ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
14Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
15TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
16Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
17Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
18ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
19System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
20Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
21Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
22ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
23Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
24Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
25Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
26ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
27System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
28Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
29Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
30Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
31Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
32Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
33Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
35Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
36Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
37PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
38Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
39Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
40Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
41Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
42Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
43DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
44Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
45Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
46Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
47Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
48Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
49Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
50Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
51Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
52Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
53Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
54PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
55Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
56Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
57NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
58Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
59Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
60Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
61Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases