Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Last Week
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Keeper | 0.63415 | 0.65000 | 11.2166 | 0.5961 | 220.620 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 26 | 14 |
2 | Line (updated) | 0.61905 | 0.68000 | 12.0357 | -1.2024 | 239.245 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 17 | 8 |
3 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.60976 | 11.8736 | -0.4179 | 242.434 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
4 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.61905 | 0.64286 | 12.0119 | -1.2262 | 243.613 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 18 | 10 |
5 | Stephen Kerns | 0.64286 | 0.60976 | 11.3655 | -0.8940 | 246.748 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 25 | 16 |
6 | Line (Midweek) | 0.64286 | | 12.1667 | -1.4524 | 247.795 | 42 | 27 | 15 | | |
7 | Waywardtrends | 0.69048 | 0.63415 | 11.6438 | -1.2486 | 259.150 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 26 | 15 |
8 | Donchess Inference | 0.57143 | 0.58537 | 12.0095 | -1.4857 | 259.430 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 17 |
9 | TeamRankings.com | 0.64286 | 0.60000 | 11.5643 | -0.7357 | 259.951 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 16 |
10 | FEI Projections | 0.57143 | 0.53659 | 12.2050 | 0.0764 | 260.699 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 19 |
11 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69048 | 0.60976 | 11.8129 | -1.2805 | 262.814 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 25 | 16 |
12 | System Average | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.8624 | -0.9576 | 263.357 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
13 | System Median | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.8533 | -1.0600 | 263.523 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
14 | Sagarin Points | 0.57143 | 0.63415 | 11.8288 | -0.9998 | 264.123 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 26 | 15 |
15 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8360 | -1.2274 | 264.261 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
16 | ESPN FPI | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 11.6314 | -1.2129 | 264.299 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
17 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 12.2288 | -0.4093 | 264.325 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
18 | Laz Index | 0.57143 | 0.60976 | 11.7760 | -0.9650 | 264.507 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 16 |
19 | Talisman Red | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.7921 | -0.5493 | 266.059 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
20 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.64286 | 0.63415 | 12.0810 | -0.6762 | 266.693 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
21 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.54762 | 0.47500 | 12.4464 | -1.1250 | 267.153 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
22 | DP Dwiggins | 0.57143 | 0.65789 | 11.8810 | 0.0714 | 267.738 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
23 | Linear Regression | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8124 | -0.1338 | 267.945 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
24 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.66667 | 0.58537 | 12.2095 | -0.7714 | 269.618 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 17 |
25 | Pigskin Index | 0.69048 | 0.57895 | 12.1193 | -1.0236 | 270.238 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 22 | 16 |
26 | Line (opening) | 0.59524 | 0.57143 | 12.2857 | -1.6190 | 270.676 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
27 | David Harville | 0.61905 | 0.53659 | 11.8800 | -0.7919 | 271.192 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 19 |
28 | Dokter Entropy | 0.54762 | 0.53659 | 12.0024 | -0.7848 | 271.779 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 19 |
29 | Howell | 0.57143 | 0.51282 | 12.8571 | -0.7143 | 271.785 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
30 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.9095 | -0.3662 | 271.862 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
31 | Edward Kambour | 0.66667 | 0.53659 | 12.4590 | -0.1914 | 272.272 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
32 | Stat Fox | 0.69048 | 0.60000 | 11.6669 | -1.2374 | 272.594 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 24 | 16 |
33 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.73810 | 0.56757 | 12.0476 | -0.8095 | 275.699 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 21 | 16 |
34 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.73171 | 0.52500 | 12.5902 | -1.0293 | 275.927 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 21 | 19 |
35 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.57143 | 0.51220 | 12.2471 | -1.3338 | 278.335 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
36 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.59524 | 0.51220 | 12.9340 | 2.8545 | 278.387 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 20 |
37 | Dunkel Index | 0.69048 | 0.48780 | 12.5607 | -0.4536 | 280.539 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 20 | 21 |
38 | Dave Congrove | 0.61905 | 0.58537 | 12.0848 | -2.3629 | 282.688 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 24 | 17 |
39 | Beck Elo | 0.59524 | 0.48718 | 12.2888 | -1.6202 | 283.215 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
40 | Payne Predict | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.7355 | -0.8664 | 283.301 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
41 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.52381 | 0.56098 | 12.4612 | -1.5850 | 283.672 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 18 |
42 | Massey Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.56098 | 12.4081 | -1.5595 | 284.297 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 23 | 18 |
43 | Laffaye RWP | 0.54762 | 0.43902 | 13.0069 | 1.1355 | 284.436 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 18 | 23 |
44 | Billingsley | 0.50000 | 0.48780 | 12.7510 | -2.4162 | 292.733 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
45 | Payne W/L | 0.52381 | 0.43902 | 12.9883 | -1.9721 | 301.727 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
46 | Born Power Index | 0.69048 | 0.51220 | 12.6929 | -0.8786 | 302.962 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 21 | 20 |
47 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 12.5036 | -0.7512 | 303.554 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
48 | Massey Consensus | 0.54762 | 0.48780 | 12.7398 | -1.7383 | 305.898 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
49 | Logistic Regression | 0.50000 | 0.51220 | 12.8690 | -2.3814 | 312.138 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
50 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.50000 | 0.53659 | 13.1786 | -2.3210 | 319.181 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 |
51 | Brent Craig | 0.66667 | 0.66667 | 22.3433 | -10.6167 | 841.238 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases