Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
2Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
3PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
4Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
5Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
6Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
7Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
8Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
9TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
10FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
11Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
12System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
13System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
14Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
15Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
16ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
17PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
18Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
19Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
20Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
21ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
22DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
23Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
24Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
25Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
26Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
27David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
28Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
29Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
30Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
31Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
32Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
33Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
34Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
35Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
36Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
37Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
38Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
39Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
40Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
41Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
42Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
43Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
44Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
45Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
46Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
47Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
48Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
49Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
50Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
51Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases