ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Massey Consensus	1.00000	0.00000	14.9900	14.9900	1	1	0	0	1
2	Brent Craig	1.00000	0.00000	12.5800	12.5800	1	1	0	0	1
3	System Median	1.00000	0.00000	12.6400	12.6400	1	1	0	0	1
4	Pi-Ratings Mean	1.00000	0.00000	12.7000	12.7000	1	1	0	0	1
5	PI-Rate Bias	1.00000	0.00000	12.9000	12.9000	1	1	0	0	1
6	Born Power Index	1.00000	0.00000	13.1000	13.1000	1	1	0	0	1
7	Payne Power Ratings	1.00000	0.00000	13.3900	13.3900	1	1	0	0	1
8	Moore Power Ratings	1.00000	0.00000	13.4600	13.4600	1	1	0	0	1
9	Pi-Rate Ratings	1.00000	0.00000	13.5000	13.5000	1	1	0	0	1
10	Sagarin Ratings	1.00000	0.00000	13.9500	13.9500	1	1	0	0	1
11	Massey Ratings	1.00000	0.00000	14.2000	14.2000	1	1	0	0	1
12	Super List	1.00000	0.00000	14.8300	14.8300	1	1	0	0	1
13	Dave Congrove	1.00000	0.00000	14.9900	14.9900	1	1	0	0	1
14	System Average	1.00000	0.00000	12.5500	12.5500	1	1	0	0	1
15	Logistic Regression	1.00000	0.00000	14.9900	14.9900	1	1	0	0	1
16	Dokter Entropy	0.00000	0.00000	15.3000	15.3000	1	0	1	0	1
17	Payne W/L	0.00000	0.00000	15.4200	15.4200	1	0	1	0	1
18	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.00000	0.00000	15.7100	15.7100	1	0	1	0	1
19	Billingsley	0.00000	0.00000	15.8000	15.8000	1	0	1	0	1
20	Stat Fox	0.00000	0.00000	16.0000	16.0000	1	0	1	0	1
21	Line (opening)	0.00000	0.00000	16.0000	16.0000	1	0	1	0	1
22	Sagarin Recent	0.00000	0.00000	16.9600	16.9600	1	0	1	0	1
23	Donchess Inference	0.00000	0.00000	18.0000	18.0000	1	0	1	0	1
24	Pigskin Index	0.00000	0.00000	19.0000	19.0000	1	0	1	0	1
25	Cleanup Hitter	0.00000	0.00000	20.5000	20.5000	1	0	1	0	1
26	Least Squares w/ HFA	1.00000	1.00000	11.5400	11.5400	1	1	0	1	0
27	Dunkel Index	1.00000	1.00000	6.9700	6.9700	1	1	0	1	0
28	Howell	1.00000	1.00000	7.5000	7.5000	1	1	0	1	0
29	Linear Regression	1.00000	1.00000	7.5400	7.5400	1	1	0	1	0
30	ARGH Power Ratings	1.00000	1.00000	8.0000	8.0000	1	1	0	1	0
31	Daniel Curry Index	1.00000	1.00000	8.1100	8.1100	1	1	0	1	0
32	Talisman Red	1.00000	1.00000	8.5300	8.5300	1	1	0	1	0
33	DP Dwiggins	1.00000	1.00000	9.0000	9.0000	1	1	0	1	0
34	Versus Sports Simulator	1.00000	1.00000	9.1600	9.1600	1	1	0	1	0
35	Payne Predict	1.00000	1.00000	9.6200	9.6200	1	1	0	1	0
36	TeamRankings.com	1.00000	1.00000	10.0000	10.0000	1	1	0	1	0
37	PerformanZ Ratings	1.00000	1.00000	10.5800	10.5800	1	1	0	1	0
38	Laz Index	1.00000	1.00000	10.8500	10.8500	1	1	0	1	0
39	FEI Projections	1.00000	1.00000	3.5000	3.5000	1	1	0	1	0
40	Sagarin Points	1.00000	1.00000	11.5800	11.5800	1	1	0	1	0
41	Laffaye RWP	1.00000	1.00000	11.7100	11.7100	1	1	0	1	0
42	Stephen Kerns	1.00000	1.00000	11.8000	11.8000	1	1	0	1	0
43	David Harville	1.00000	1.00000	11.8300	11.8300	1	1	0	1	0
44	Computer Adjusted Line	1.00000		12.0000	12.0000	1	1	0
45	Line (updated)	1.00000		12.0000	12.0000	1	1	0
46	Loudsound.org	1.00000		12.0000	12.0000	1	1	0
47	Line (Midweek)	1.00000		12.0000	12.0000	1	1	0
48	Edward Kambour	1.00000	0.00000	12.0500	12.0500	1	1	0	0	1
49	Beck Elo	1.00000	0.00000	12.1000	12.1000	1	1	0	0	1
50	ESPN FPI	1.00000	0.00000	12.1200	12.1200	1	1	0	0	1


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases