Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Massey Consensus1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
2Brent Craig1.000000.0000012.580012.580011001
3System Median1.000000.0000012.640012.640011001
4Pi-Ratings Mean1.000000.0000012.700012.700011001
5PI-Rate Bias1.000000.0000012.900012.900011001
6Born Power Index1.000000.0000013.100013.100011001
7Payne Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.390013.390011001
8Moore Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.460013.460011001
9Pi-Rate Ratings1.000000.0000013.500013.500011001
10Sagarin Ratings1.000000.0000013.950013.950011001
11Massey Ratings1.000000.0000014.200014.200011001
12Super List1.000000.0000014.830014.830011001
13Dave Congrove1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
14System Average1.000000.0000012.550012.550011001
15Logistic Regression1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
16Dokter Entropy0.000000.0000015.300015.300010101
17Payne W/L0.000000.0000015.420015.420010101
18Sagarin Golden Mean0.000000.0000015.710015.710010101
19Billingsley0.000000.0000015.800015.800010101
20Stat Fox0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
21Line (opening)0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
22Sagarin Recent0.000000.0000016.960016.960010101
23Donchess Inference0.000000.0000018.000018.000010101
24Pigskin Index0.000000.0000019.000019.000010101
25Cleanup Hitter0.000000.0000020.500020.500010101
26Least Squares w/ HFA1.000001.0000011.540011.540011010
27Dunkel Index1.000001.000006.97006.970011010
28Howell1.000001.000007.50007.500011010
29Linear Regression1.000001.000007.54007.540011010
30ARGH Power Ratings1.000001.000008.00008.000011010
31Daniel Curry Index1.000001.000008.11008.110011010
32Talisman Red1.000001.000008.53008.530011010
33DP Dwiggins1.000001.000009.00009.000011010
34Versus Sports Simulator1.000001.000009.16009.160011010
35Payne Predict1.000001.000009.62009.620011010
36TeamRankings.com1.000001.0000010.000010.000011010
37PerformanZ Ratings1.000001.0000010.580010.580011010
38Laz Index1.000001.0000010.850010.850011010
39FEI Projections1.000001.000003.50003.500011010
40Sagarin Points1.000001.0000011.580011.580011010
41Laffaye RWP1.000001.0000011.710011.710011010
42Stephen Kerns1.000001.0000011.800011.800011010
43David Harville1.000001.0000011.830011.830011010
44Computer Adjusted Line1.0000012.000012.0000110
45Line (updated)1.0000012.000012.0000110
46Loudsound.org1.0000012.000012.0000110
47Line (Midweek)1.0000012.000012.0000110
48Edward Kambour1.000000.0000012.050012.050011001
49Beck Elo1.000000.0000012.100012.100011001
50ESPN FPI1.000000.0000012.120012.120011001
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases