Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
2Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
3Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
4MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
5Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
6Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
7Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
8Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
9System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
10Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
11Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
12System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
13Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
14CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
15Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
16NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
17Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
18Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
19Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
20ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
21Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
22Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
23Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
24Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
25Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
26Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
27Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
28Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
29Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
30Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
31Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
32Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
33Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
34Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
35Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
36PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
37Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
38CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
39Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
40NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
41Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
42ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
43PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
44Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
45Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
46Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
47Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
48Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
49Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
50Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
51Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
52Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
53DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
54Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
55Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
56Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
57Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
58Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
59Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
60Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
61PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
62FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
63ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
64Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
65Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
66Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
67Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
68Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
69Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases