Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Second Half Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (updated) | 0.69077 | 0.48795 | 12.1696 | 0.9352 | 245.637 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 81 | 85 |
2 | Line (Midweek) | 0.68828 | | 12.1658 | 0.8865 | 246.572 | 401 | 276 | 125 | | |
3 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.68828 | 0.49780 | 12.1746 | 0.9401 | 246.707 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 113 | 114 |
4 | Line (opening) | 0.68080 | 0.51506 | 12.1858 | 0.9214 | 248.344 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 171 | 161 |
5 | Donchess Inference | 0.68080 | 0.52163 | 12.3888 | 1.2311 | 253.483 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 205 | 188 |
6 | Dokter Entropy | 0.68828 | 0.50253 | 12.3029 | 1.3881 | 253.666 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 199 | 197 |
7 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69077 | 0.51385 | 12.3537 | 0.3741 | 254.033 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 193 |
8 | System Median | 0.68329 | 0.50891 | 12.2863 | 1.0033 | 254.703 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 200 | 193 |
9 | System Average | 0.67830 | 0.49495 | 12.3219 | 1.0654 | 255.928 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 196 | 200 |
10 | Sagarin Points | 0.66584 | 0.51889 | 12.4593 | 0.3785 | 255.950 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 206 | 191 |
11 | ESPN FPI | 0.68579 | 0.51889 | 12.3418 | 1.5017 | 256.291 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 206 | 191 |
12 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70823 | 0.49100 | 12.3065 | 1.2143 | 257.356 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 191 | 198 |
13 | Edward Kambour | 0.68329 | 0.51134 | 12.4024 | 0.9204 | 257.449 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 203 | 194 |
14 | Sagarin Recent | 0.67830 | 0.52141 | 12.4430 | 0.3165 | 257.696 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 207 | 190 |
15 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67830 | 0.49874 | 12.3747 | 0.5489 | 257.745 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 198 | 199 |
16 | David Harville | 0.67830 | 0.51899 | 12.3732 | 0.7194 | 258.638 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 205 | 190 |
17 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.48092 | 12.4025 | 0.7067 | 258.742 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 189 | 204 |
18 | Laz Index | 0.67920 | 0.53046 | 12.5239 | 1.1060 | 258.874 | 399 | 271 | 128 | 209 | 185 |
19 | Massey Ratings | 0.68080 | 0.54408 | 12.4326 | 0.5710 | 259.567 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 216 | 181 |
20 | FEI Projections | 0.68579 | 0.51015 | 12.5154 | -1.2731 | 260.921 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 201 | 193 |
21 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.49361 | 12.3947 | 1.2003 | 261.324 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 193 | 198 |
22 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.69327 | 0.48608 | 12.4667 | 1.2967 | 262.545 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 192 | 203 |
23 | Waywardtrends | 0.66833 | 0.54798 | 12.4554 | 1.4761 | 263.560 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 217 | 179 |
24 | Roundtable | 0.69966 | 0.49825 | 12.7270 | 0.8498 | 267.250 | 293 | 205 | 88 | 142 | 143 |
25 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68579 | 0.53046 | 12.6303 | 1.3528 | 267.524 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 209 | 185 |
26 | Pigskin Index | 0.68828 | 0.50928 | 12.5860 | 1.1550 | 268.728 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 192 | 185 |
27 | Bihl System | 0.68802 | 0.47472 | 12.7996 | 1.0667 | 268.819 | 359 | 247 | 112 | 169 | 187 |
28 | Talisman Red | 0.67581 | 0.53149 | 12.6589 | 0.6449 | 269.413 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 211 | 186 |
29 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.67332 | 0.49118 | 12.7174 | 1.0186 | 270.507 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 195 | 202 |
30 | Loudsound.org | 0.68857 | 0.53659 | 12.7886 | -1.6800 | 271.466 | 350 | 241 | 109 | 176 | 152 |
31 | Brent Craig | 0.69722 | 0.48459 | 12.7496 | 1.7930 | 271.689 | 360 | 251 | 109 | 173 | 184 |
32 | Keeper | 0.68750 | 0.51646 | 12.8292 | 2.1349 | 272.116 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 204 | 191 |
33 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.48148 | 12.7731 | 0.8953 | 272.858 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 182 | 196 |
34 | Dave Congrove | 0.67830 | 0.50758 | 12.6351 | 1.2525 | 273.307 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 201 | 195 |
35 | DP Dwiggins | 0.67500 | 0.51181 | 12.8200 | -0.3600 | 273.570 | 400 | 270 | 130 | 195 | 186 |
36 | Born Power Index | 0.67830 | 0.48866 | 12.7783 | 1.4112 | 275.438 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 203 |
37 | Stat Fox | 0.67581 | 0.49606 | 12.7732 | 2.4193 | 275.892 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 189 | 192 |
38 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.67332 | 0.49370 | 12.8127 | 0.8145 | 277.013 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 196 | 201 |
39 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47607 | 12.8968 | 0.7591 | 277.022 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 189 | 208 |
40 | Billingsley | 0.67332 | 0.51134 | 12.8153 | 1.1215 | 277.332 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 203 | 194 |
41 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68342 | 0.51523 | 12.8351 | 0.8798 | 277.612 | 398 | 272 | 126 | 203 | 191 |
42 | Laffaye RWP | 0.67830 | 0.49622 | 12.8430 | 1.2225 | 277.720 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 197 | 200 |
43 | Beck Elo | 0.67581 | 0.47583 | 12.7865 | 1.6138 | 278.086 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 187 | 206 |
44 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
45 | Dunkel Index | 0.68687 | 0.51276 | 12.8034 | 1.4600 | 279.992 | 396 | 272 | 124 | 201 | 191 |
46 | Payne Predict | 0.67332 | 0.47475 | 12.9410 | 1.0327 | 283.334 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 188 | 208 |
47 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47721 | 12.9551 | 2.3965 | 283.654 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 178 | 195 |
48 | Howell | 0.68080 | 0.48670 | 13.0873 | 1.2844 | 287.375 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 183 | 193 |
49 | Massey Consensus | 0.67581 | 0.49874 | 13.0219 | 1.7170 | 287.824 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 198 | 199 |
50 | Payne W/L | 0.65087 | 0.50253 | 13.1545 | 0.6977 | 291.661 | 401 | 261 | 140 | 199 | 197 |
51 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.62095 | 0.48837 | 13.5960 | 0.9279 | 298.045 | 401 | 249 | 152 | 189 | 198 |
52 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.52141 | 13.6989 | 1.9048 | 305.681 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 207 | 190 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
54 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases