Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.713220.4625912.51000.6072243.5514012861156879
2Computer Adjusted Line0.700750.4600012.54990.6621244.08940128112092108
3Line (Midweek)0.6907712.54990.6471244.872401277124
4System Average0.690770.5000012.76630.8347250.233401277124198198
5Roundtable0.706070.5120312.72840.4792250.23631322192149142
6Line (opening)0.693270.5202312.64710.5424251.068401278123180166
7System Median0.678300.4923912.80620.7864251.569401272129194200
8Sagarin Ratings0.683290.4368712.90940.4542253.158401274127173223
9Bihl System0.702480.4972212.93010.2500254.820363255108179181
10David Harville0.690770.4658212.93050.4803255.005401277124184211
11FEI Projections0.687500.4987312.92320.3387255.325400275125196197
12Edward Kambour0.693270.4722212.95810.6587255.632401278123187209
13Sagarin Golden Mean0.675810.4621212.99450.4566256.537401271130183213
14TeamRankings.com0.690770.5217412.85360.8357256.795401277124204187
15Sagarin Points0.688280.4531613.00820.4445257.926401276125179216
16Brent Craig0.714290.5235512.93150.7749258.543364260104189172
17Laz Index0.695760.4949512.96510.8169258.561401279122196200
18ESPN FPI0.690770.4708912.86201.3393258.710401277124186209
19Sagarin Recent0.683290.4848512.99430.5106260.414401274127192204
20Pigskin Index0.670820.4904613.04480.9206261.144401269132180187
21Howell0.716790.4816813.12400.4676262.054399286113184198
22Dokter Entropy0.692500.4656512.96331.0217262.196400277123183210
23Dunkel Index0.668330.4924213.11881.2242262.208401268133195201
24Donchess Inference0.698250.4832913.10480.7736262.332401280121188201
25Pi-Ratings Mean0.685790.4845413.10751.0182262.925401275126188200
26Massey Ratings0.670820.4697013.18500.4600263.324401269132186210
27Stephen Kerns0.693270.4987313.23120.9541263.526401278123197198
28Pi-Rate Ratings0.675810.5012713.09530.9686264.247401271130197196
29PI-Rate Bias0.685790.4974713.09611.0840264.370401275126197199
30Versus Sports Simulator0.692500.4708913.13560.7023264.443400277123186209
31Payne Predict0.708230.4873713.08650.5846265.448401284117193203
32Talisman Red0.678390.4809213.10380.3416265.505398270128189204
33Beck Elo0.693270.5126313.10211.1038265.591401278123203193
34ARGH Power Ratings0.710720.4843813.15210.5686266.275401285116186198
35DP Dwiggins0.701010.4960213.06281.3693266.616398279119187190
36Linear Regression0.690770.4974713.19280.4825267.460401277124197199
37Stat Fox0.665840.4973713.15222.3942268.566401267134189191
38Born Power Index0.670820.4949513.18591.3675268.773401269132196200
39Daniel Curry Index0.683290.4722213.24980.6096268.991401274127187209
40Payne Power Ratings0.703240.4671713.23470.0998269.784401282119185211
41Moore Power Ratings0.685790.5000013.25161.1222272.744401275126198198
42Keeper0.708540.5102013.28821.3486273.753398282116200192
43Massey Consensus0.728180.4708913.42661.3417277.534401292109186209
44Dave Congrove0.662500.5000013.43861.1211277.764400265135197197
45PerformanZ Ratings0.728180.4848513.38211.3665279.104401292109192204
46Loudsound.org0.683670.4760613.6862-1.9923281.273392268124179197
47Laffaye RWP0.692750.5000013.58301.0170286.990345239106170170
48Billingsley0.720700.4621213.64960.6766292.054401289112183213
49Payne W/L0.715710.4695413.8109-0.1546292.611401287114185209
50Cleanup Hitter0.653370.4687514.36040.9542316.503401262139180204
51Super List0.705740.5088615.17641.4997351.861401283118201194
52Logistic Regression0.678300.4722215.4058-2.1711369.469401272129187209
53Least Squares w/ HFA0.665840.5151515.65820.6268372.986401267134204192
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases