Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
2Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
3Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
4Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
5Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
6Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
7Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
8Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
9Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
10System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
11System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
12Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
13DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
14Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
15Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
16Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
17Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
18CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
19Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
20Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
21Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
22PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
23Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
24Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
25Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
26Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
27Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
28Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
29ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
30Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
31Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
32Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
33PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
34Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
35Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
36ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
37Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
38Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
39Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
40Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
41Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
42Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
43ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
44DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
45Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
46Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
47Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
48Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
49Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
50Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
51Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
52Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
53Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
54MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
55Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
56PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
57NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
58Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
59Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
60Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
61NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
62Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
63Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
64Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
65FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
66Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
67CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
68Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
69Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
70Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
71Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
72Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases