ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Thompson CAL	0.72209	0.52451	12.9648	0.6618	266.308	421	304	117	214	194
2	Line (opening)	0.69928	0.52941	12.9212	0.4988	266.518	419	293	126	180	160
3	Line (updated)	0.71734	0.52881	12.9454	0.9477	266.800	421	302	119	156	139
4	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71734	0.52050	12.9596	0.8575	266.877	421	302	119	165	152
5	Ashby AccuRatings	0.73159	0.53298	12.8931	0.4325	267.211	421	308	113	202	177
6	Line (Midweek)	0.71463		12.9207	0.8183	268.249	410	293	117
7	Dokter Entropy	0.71496	0.50490	13.1026	0.8485	269.011	421	301	120	206	202
8	Thompson Average	0.71496	0.53202	13.0543	0.4857	269.285	421	301	120	216	190
9	Thompson ATS	0.71734	0.50245	13.0860	0.6209	270.603	421	302	119	205	203
10	System Median	0.71971	0.53500	13.0895	0.3080	271.540	421	303	118	214	186
11	System Average	0.71259	0.52088	13.1091	0.3393	272.426	421	300	121	212	195
12	Stephen Kerns	0.71496	0.51870	13.1366	0.1153	273.012	421	301	120	208	193
13	DirectorOfInformation	0.71971	0.50245	13.0624	0.2684	273.286	421	303	118	205	203
14	Sagarin Ratings	0.72684	0.54054	13.1433	0.6402	273.734	421	306	115	220	187
15	Donchess Inference	0.70309	0.51843	13.2076	0.2152	275.788	421	296	125	211	196
16	Sagarin Points	0.71496	0.49386	13.2123	0.7641	277.773	421	301	120	201	206
17	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.72447	0.52696	13.2197	0.7225	277.833	421	305	116	215	193
18	CPA Rankings	0.73159	0.50490	13.2431	-0.4419	278.176	421	308	113	206	202
19	Pigskin Index	0.71734	0.54830	13.2424	-0.0922	279.052	421	302	119	210	173
20	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.69359	0.50620	13.3662	0.0609	279.121	421	292	129	204	199
21	Billingsley+	0.72447	0.54412	13.2301	0.1147	279.158	421	305	116	222	186
22	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70546	0.52941	13.3664	0.6261	279.334	421	297	124	216	192
23	Sagarin Points Elo	0.73159	0.51852	13.3018	0.3586	279.550	421	308	113	210	195
24	Atomic Football	0.71259	0.53989	13.1995	0.5819	279.655	421	300	121	203	173
25	Keeper	0.70167	0.49261	13.4968	1.4262	280.207	419	294	125	200	206
26	Massey Consensus	0.71734	0.54902	13.3133	0.4597	280.955	421	302	119	224	184
27	Laz Index	0.71496	0.50245	13.3845	-0.0067	282.007	421	301	120	205	203
28	Payne Power Ratings	0.73571	0.53695	13.3613	-0.7122	282.787	420	309	111	218	188
29	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72684	0.52821	13.3901	0.6502	283.474	421	306	115	206	184
30	Edward Kambour	0.71496	0.51225	13.3693	0.7713	283.572	421	301	120	209	199
31	Bihl System	0.70644	0.49754	13.4685	0.7592	284.322	419	296	123	202	204
32	Stat Fox	0.73397	0.51804	13.4395	1.5538	284.597	421	309	112	201	187
33	PI-Rate Bias	0.69596	0.51232	13.3971	0.2115	284.679	421	293	128	208	198
34	Massey Ratings	0.71496	0.52344	13.3658	-0.3064	285.138	421	301	120	201	183
35	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.69834	0.53333	13.3813	0.2473	286.081	421	294	127	216	189
36	ThePowerRank.com	0.69471	0.49751	13.5498	0.1344	286.417	416	289	127	200	202
37	Catherwood Ratings	0.71360	0.52538	13.6134	1.3604	286.783	419	299	120	207	187
38	Howell	0.71429	0.51554	13.4535	0.2227	287.045	420	300	120	199	187
39	Linear Regression	0.68835	0.51124	13.5403	-0.4773	287.299	369	254	115	182	174
40	Born Power Index	0.72209	0.53431	13.5026	0.3003	288.662	421	304	117	218	190
41	Covers.com	0.71496	0.54208	13.4449	-0.2154	291.280	421	301	120	219	185
42	Marsee	0.70309	0.49246	13.6603	2.1971	292.680	421	296	125	196	202
43	ComPughter Ratings	0.69451	0.50493	13.7075	-0.3436	293.888	419	291	128	205	201
44	DP Dwiggins	0.69307	0.44086	13.8812	1.0297	293.910	101	70	31	41	52
45	Beck Elo	0.69121	0.52580	13.7541	0.4671	295.399	421	291	130	214	193
46	Moore Power Ratings	0.71259	0.53808	13.6396	0.6870	296.684	421	300	121	219	188
47	Brent Craig	0.68333	0.49631	13.8749	0.6808	297.249	420	287	133	202	205
48	Billingsley	0.70071	0.53186	13.5492	-0.1508	297.315	421	295	126	217	191
49	Regression Based Analys	0.72964	0.53047	13.4853	1.9674	298.952	307	224	83	148	131
50	Laffaye RWP	0.71021	0.54412	13.5657	-1.6667	299.276	421	299	122	222	186
51	Daniel Curry Index	0.72143	0.52956	13.8226	0.4498	300.269	420	303	117	215	191
52	Dave Congrove	0.74822	0.51471	13.5537	0.2537	300.298	421	315	106	210	198
53	Lee Burdorf	0.70071	0.48894	13.7938	0.6742	300.412	421	295	126	199	208
54	MDS Model	0.70058	0.50450	13.7147	-0.2503	300.594	344	241	103	168	165
55	Randal Horobik	0.73016	0.48918	13.8572	0.2977	301.681	252	184	68	113	118
56	PointShare	0.67221	0.50246	13.8475	-0.9520	302.783	421	283	138	204	202
57	NutShell Combo	0.71021	0.52463	13.7813	0.0451	303.199	421	299	122	213	193
58	Dunkel Index	0.71053	0.48395	14.0616	1.1671	309.021	418	297	121	196	209
59	Sportrends	0.67828	0.52260	14.0630	1.0791	309.786	373	253	120	185	169
60	Nutshell Eye	0.68409	0.51741	13.8560	-0.0618	310.448	421	288	133	208	194
61	NutShell Sports	0.69596	0.51117	13.9946	-0.0798	311.339	421	293	128	206	197
62	Cleanup Hitter	0.69825	0.50515	13.7120	1.5798	312.911	401	280	121	196	192
63	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.72313	0.54110	13.6482	-1.7134	314.805	307	222	85	158	134
64	Loudsound.org	0.68946	0.56250	13.8176	-3.4239	316.756	351	242	109	189	147
65	FEI Projections	0.67458	0.50765	14.2518	-0.7838	323.376	421	284	137	199	193
66	Nutshell Girl	0.69121	0.47304	14.1623	0.2815	323.692	421	291	130	193	215
67	CPA Retro	0.66033	0.48529	14.5276	-0.9322	324.421	421	278	143	198	210
68	Super List	0.67696	0.53922	14.6757	0.3789	339.487	421	285	136	220	188
69	Brent Craig 2	0.69231	0.31373	16.0938	3.1962	373.644	52	36	16	16	35
70	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66667	0.53221	15.4541	0.0537	375.347	369	246	123	190	167
71	Logistic Regression	0.68564	0.55462	15.7456	-2.8696	389.856	369	253	116	198	159
72	Laffaye XWP	0.68884	0.48515	16.2796	6.6292	413.606	421	290	131	196	208

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases