Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (updated) | 0.71521 | 0.49280 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 |
2 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72036 | | 12.0599 | 0.5664 | 234.538 | 776 | 559 | 217 | | |
3 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71392 | 0.46903 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 |
4 | Line (opening) | 0.70619 | 0.50779 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 |
5 | Dokter Entropy | 0.70361 | 0.49086 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 |
6 | ESPN FPI | 0.70351 | 0.50526 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 |
7 | System Median | 0.69330 | 0.50859 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 |
8 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.71134 | 0.49208 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 |
9 | System Average | 0.68814 | 0.49935 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 |
10 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70361 | 0.47895 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 |
11 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.70747 | 0.50651 | 12.4622 | -0.1380 | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 |
12 | Donchess Inference | 0.70103 | 0.52185 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 |
13 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.71134 | 0.49211 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 |
14 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.70232 | 0.49020 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 |
15 | Massey Ratings | 0.69716 | 0.53194 | 12.4786 | -0.0418 | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 |
16 | David Harville | 0.69459 | 0.50914 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 |
17 | Sagarin Points | 0.68943 | 0.50392 | 12.5489 | -0.1454 | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 |
18 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68041 | 0.50651 | 12.5151 | -0.0336 | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 |
19 | Pigskin Index | 0.70232 | 0.48971 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 |
20 | Brent Craig | 0.70330 | 0.45492 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 |
21 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69974 | 0.49153 | 12.6528 | -0.0329 | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 |
22 | Edward Kambour | 0.68863 | 0.48564 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 |
23 | FEI Projections | 0.67572 | 0.49433 | 12.6622 | -1.6793 | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 |
24 | Stat Fox | 0.69010 | 0.49252 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 |
25 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69728 | 0.47582 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 |
26 | Laz Index | 0.68863 | 0.51895 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 |
27 | Waywardtrends | 0.68428 | 0.51108 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 |
28 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.68814 | 0.49479 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 |
29 | Dave Congrove | 0.68428 | 0.50717 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 |
30 | Bihl System | 0.67317 | 0.48157 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 |
31 | Talisman Red | 0.69201 | 0.52344 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 |
32 | Born Power Index | 0.69459 | 0.47917 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 |
33 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68000 | 0.48172 | 13.1106 | -0.0252 | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 |
34 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.67526 | 0.47891 | 13.0938 | -0.0512 | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 |
35 | Beck Elo | 0.67784 | 0.48037 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 |
36 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
37 | Payne Predict | 0.68428 | 0.47320 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 |
38 | Massey Consensus | 0.68170 | 0.47005 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 |
39 | Keeper | 0.69548 | 0.52480 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 |
40 | Roundtable | 0.68340 | 0.50298 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 |
41 | Dunkel Index | 0.69648 | 0.49631 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 |
42 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68564 | 0.50065 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 |
43 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67784 | 0.46143 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 |
44 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69290 | 0.48656 | 13.2723 | -0.9342 | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 |
45 | Laffaye RWP | 0.68283 | 0.48039 | 13.5330 | -0.0155 | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 |
46 | Billingsley | 0.66452 | 0.50261 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 |
47 | Howell | 0.67655 | 0.47684 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 |
48 | Payne W/L | 0.65851 | 0.48956 | 13.5289 | -0.2410 | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 |
49 | Loudsound.org | 0.66435 | 0.51679 | 13.9540 | -3.3022 | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 |
50 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66624 | 0.48568 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 |
51 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.64820 | 0.46996 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 |
52 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69072 | 0.48429 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
54 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases