Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
2Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
3Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
4ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
5TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
6Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
7PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
8System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
9Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
10System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
11Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
12Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
13David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
14Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
15ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
16Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
17FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
18Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
19Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
20Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
21Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
22Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
23Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
24ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
25Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
26Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
27Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
28Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
29Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
30Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
31Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
32Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
33PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
34Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
35Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
36Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
37Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
38Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
39Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
40Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
41Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
42Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
43Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
44Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases