Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
2Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
3Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
4Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
5Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
6Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
7Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
8Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
9Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
10Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
11Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
12Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
13Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
14Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
15TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
16Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
17PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
18Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
19Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
20Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
21Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
22System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
23System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
24Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
25Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
26Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
27David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
28Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
29Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
30Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
31Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
32Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
33Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
34PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
35ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
36DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
37Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
38Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
39FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
40Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
41Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
42Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
43Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
44ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
45Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
46Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
47Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
48Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
49Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
50Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
51Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases