Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
2Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
3Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
4Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
5CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
6Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
7Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
8Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
9ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
10Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
11Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
12Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
13Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
14Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
15Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
16Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
17DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
18System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
19Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
20Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
21Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
22Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
23Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
24Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
25Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
26Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
27Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
28Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
29Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
30Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
31Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
32Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
33Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
34Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
35System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
36Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
37Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
38Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
39NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
40Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
41Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
42PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
43Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
44Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
45Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
46Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
47Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
48MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
49Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
50Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
51Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
52PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
53NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
54ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
55ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
56Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
57DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
58Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
59Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
60Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
61Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
62Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
63Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
64Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
65Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
66Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
67Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
68Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
69FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
70PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
71Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
72CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases