Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
2Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
3Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
4Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
5Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
6ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
7Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
8Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
9Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
10Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
11Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
12Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
13Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
14TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
15Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
16PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
17Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
18Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
19Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
20Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
21Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
22David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
23Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
24Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
25DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
26Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
27Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
28Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
29ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
30System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
31Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
32Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
33Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
34Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
35System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
36Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
37Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
38Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
39Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
40Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
41PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
42Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
43Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
44Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
45Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
46Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
47Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
48FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
49Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
50Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases