Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
2Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
3Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
4System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
5DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
6Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
7Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
8Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
9System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
10Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
11Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
12Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
13PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
14Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
15PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
16Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
17Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
18Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
19Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
20Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
21TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
22Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
23Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
24Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
25Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
26Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
27Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
28Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
29Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
30Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
31FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
32Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
33Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
34Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
35Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
36ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
37David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
38Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
39Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
41Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
42Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
43Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
44Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
45Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
46Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
47Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
48ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
49Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
50Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
51Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases