Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
2ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
3Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
4Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
5Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
6Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
7Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
8MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
9Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
10System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
11Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
12System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
13Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
14Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
15Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
16Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
17Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
18Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
19Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
20Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
21Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
22Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
23Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
24Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
25ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
26PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
27Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
28Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
29NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
30NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
31Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
32Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
33ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
34Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
35Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
36Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
37Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
38Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
39Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
40Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
41Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
42Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
43Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
44Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
45Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
46PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
47Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
48Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
49Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
50Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
51Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
52CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
53DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
54Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
55Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
56Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
57Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
58FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
59Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
60CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
61Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
62Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
63Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
64PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
65Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
66Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
67Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
68Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
69Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases