ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2012 Last Week

Through 2013-01-07

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Catherwood Ratings	0.62857	0.73333	12.0571	271.257	35	22	13	22	8
2	Bias Free Rankings	0.71429	0.63636	13.4340	337.716	35	25	10	21	12
3	Dunkel Index	0.71429	0.60606	13.0986	321.167	35	25	10	20	13
4	Born Power Index	0.71429	0.60606	13.2343	309.663	35	25	10	20	13
5	Line (opening)	0.62857	0.60000	13.4429	299.064	35	22	13	15	10
6	Daniel Curry Index	0.74286	0.59375	13.2571	302.229	35	26	9	19	13
7	Stat Fox	0.68571	0.59375	13.1709	276.646	35	24	11	19	13
8	Keeper	0.65714	0.57576	13.8257	339.875	35	23	12	19	14
9	testing new method	0.60000	0.57576	14.1783	307.081	35	21	14	19	14
10	Laz Index	0.65714	0.57576	13.9237	311.487	35	23	12	19	14
11	Atomic Football	0.62857	0.57576	13.4283	297.123	35	22	13	19	14
12	Pigskin Index	0.68571	0.57143	13.2289	292.259	35	24	11	16	12
13	CF By the Numbers	0.68571	0.55172	13.4854	303.532	35	24	11	16	13
14	CPA Rankings	0.65714	0.54545	13.6671	318.588	35	23	12	18	15
15	SID ratings	0.65714	0.54545	14.3117	343.591	35	23	12	18	15
16	Ted Thompson SPRS	0.68571	0.54545	14.6346	329.691	35	24	11	18	15
17	Dave Congrove	0.68571	0.54545	13.5794	296.050	35	24	11	18	15
18	Directorofinformation	0.62857	0.54545	14.1580	331.791	35	22	13	18	15
19	Moore Power Ratings	0.71429	0.54545	12.9417	281.797	35	25	10	18	15
20	Compughter Ratings	0.65625	0.53333	14.4469	346.497	32	21	11	16	14
21	Linear Regression	0.62857	0.51515	14.4597	357.072	35	22	13	17	16
22	Beck Elo	0.62857	0.51515	14.1089	331.203	35	22	13	17	16
23	Billingsley+	0.60000	0.51515	14.0140	303.002	35	21	14	17	16
24	DP Dwiggins	0.60000	0.51515	15.5029	381.039	35	21	14	17	16
25	Ted Thompson Avg	0.65714	0.50000	13.6140	306.968	35	23	12	15	15
26	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.71429	0.50000	14.2000	310.200	35	25	10	15	15
27	Regression-Based Analys	0.60000	0.50000	14.4571	329.257	35	21	14	15	15
28	Pi-Ratings Vintage	0.65714	0.48485	13.9143	321.271	35	23	12	16	17
29	Edward Kambour	0.60000	0.48485	14.2703	348.261	35	21	14	16	17
30	NutShell Combo	0.62857	0.48485	14.6029	333.442	35	22	13	16	17
31	Payne Power Ratings	0.65714	0.48485	14.0660	336.283	35	23	12	16	17
32	Sagarin Predictive	0.68571	0.48485	13.9254	321.644	35	24	11	16	17
33	Covers.com	0.65714	0.48485	14.7434	332.512	35	23	12	16	17
34	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.68571	0.48485	16.3926	471.857	35	24	11	16	17
35	Brent Craig	0.61290	0.48387	15.5545	402.615	31	19	12	15	16
36	Hank Trexler	0.62857	0.46667	14.4571	317.943	35	22	13	14	16
37	Sportrends	0.64706	0.46667	14.3529	338.882	34	22	12	14	16
38	Marsee	0.62857	0.45455	14.6000	345.800	35	22	13	15	18
39	Nutshell Girl	0.54286	0.45455	14.5491	330.219	35	19	16	15	18
40	NationalSportsRankings	0.74286	0.45455	13.8551	318.052	35	26	9	15	18
41	Anderson/Hester *	0.45714	0.45455	16.6580	418.830	35	16	19	15	18
42	Stephen Kerns	0.62857	0.45455	14.8769	359.880	35	22	13	15	18
43	Bihl System	0.62857	0.45455	14.3874	338.455	35	22	13	15	18
44	System Average	0.65714	0.45455	14.0300	321.616	35	23	12	15	18
45	Dokter Entropy	0.65714	0.45455	13.5694	290.591	35	23	12	15	18
46	System Median	0.68571	0.43750	13.8560	315.507	35	24	11	14	18
47	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.67647	0.43750	14.2747	325.757	34	23	11	14	18
48	Warren Claassen	0.54286	0.42424	15.8329	380.760	35	19	16	14	19
49	Pointshare Ratings	0.68571	0.42424	14.1657	320.630	35	24	11	14	19
50	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.65714	0.42424	13.5229	300.581	35	23	12	14	19
51	Logistic Regression	0.48571	0.42424	20.1494	629.981	35	17	18	14	19
52	PerformanZ Ratings	0.71429	0.42424	13.6214	315.242	35	25	10	14	19
53	Massey Ratings	0.68571	0.42308	14.4000	338.400	35	24	11	11	15
54	Howell	0.54286	0.40625	15.6143	383.179	35	19	16	13	19
55	Massey Consensus	0.60000	0.40625	15.3097	364.414	35	21	14	13	19
56	Ashby AccuRatings	0.65714	0.40000	14.0857	311.971	35	23	12	12	18
57	Colley Rankings *	0.45714	0.39394	16.7437	420.417	35	16	19	13	20
58	Sagarin Elo	0.45714	0.39394	16.5960	405.278	35	16	19	13	20
59	Laffaye XWP	0.57143	0.39394	18.9743	567.525	35	20	15	13	20
60	Super List	0.57143	0.39394	16.5166	417.463	35	20	15	13	20
61	Laffaye RWP	0.62857	0.39394	15.7346	377.238	35	22	13	13	20
62	Sagarin	0.62857	0.39394	15.2637	355.918	35	22	13	13	20
63	NutShell Sports	0.62857	0.39394	14.9371	362.492	35	22	13	13	20
64	Fremeau FEI	0.60000	0.38710	16.1143	381.714	35	21	14	12	19
65	ARGH Power Ratings	0.65714	0.36667	15.3929	377.177	35	23	12	11	19
66	Wolfe *	0.51429	0.36364	16.9711	424.177	35	18	17	12	21
67	Massey *	0.48571	0.36364	16.9766	417.669	35	17	18	12	21
68	CPA Retro	0.54286	0.33333	16.6857	414.790	35	19	16	11	22
69	Billingsley	0.48571	0.33333	16.0246	365.109	35	17	18	11	22
70	Computer Adjusted Line	0.65714	0.28571	13.5286	299.450	35	23	12	2	5
71	Line (updated)	0.65714		13.4714	298.950	35	23	12

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases