Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Second Half Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Brent Craig | 0.71429 | 0.52355 | 12.9315 | 0.7749 | 258.543 | 364 | 260 | 104 | 189 | 172 |
2 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.52174 | 12.8536 | 0.8357 | 256.795 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 187 |
3 | Line (opening) | 0.69327 | 0.52023 | 12.6471 | 0.5424 | 251.068 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 180 | 166 |
4 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
5 | Beck Elo | 0.69327 | 0.51263 | 13.1021 | 1.1038 | 265.591 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 203 | 193 |
6 | Roundtable | 0.70607 | 0.51203 | 12.7284 | 0.4792 | 250.236 | 313 | 221 | 92 | 149 | 142 |
7 | Keeper | 0.70854 | 0.51020 | 13.2882 | 1.3486 | 273.753 | 398 | 282 | 116 | 200 | 192 |
8 | Super List | 0.70574 | 0.50886 | 15.1764 | 1.4997 | 351.861 | 401 | 283 | 118 | 201 | 194 |
9 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.67581 | 0.50127 | 13.0953 | 0.9686 | 264.247 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 197 | 196 |
10 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68579 | 0.50000 | 13.2516 | 1.1222 | 272.744 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 198 | 198 |
11 | System Average | 0.69077 | 0.50000 | 12.7663 | 0.8347 | 250.233 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 198 | 198 |
12 | Laffaye RWP | 0.69275 | 0.50000 | 13.5830 | 1.0170 | 286.990 | 345 | 239 | 106 | 170 | 170 |
13 | Dave Congrove | 0.66250 | 0.50000 | 13.4386 | 1.1211 | 277.764 | 400 | 265 | 135 | 197 | 197 |
14 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69327 | 0.49873 | 13.2312 | 0.9541 | 263.526 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 197 | 198 |
15 | FEI Projections | 0.68750 | 0.49873 | 12.9232 | 0.3387 | 255.325 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 196 | 197 |
16 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
17 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.68579 | 0.49747 | 13.0961 | 1.0840 | 264.370 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 197 | 199 |
18 | Stat Fox | 0.66584 | 0.49737 | 13.1522 | 2.3942 | 268.566 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 189 | 191 |
19 | Bihl System | 0.70248 | 0.49722 | 12.9301 | 0.2500 | 254.820 | 363 | 255 | 108 | 179 | 181 |
20 | DP Dwiggins | 0.70101 | 0.49602 | 13.0628 | 1.3693 | 266.616 | 398 | 279 | 119 | 187 | 190 |
21 | Laz Index | 0.69576 | 0.49495 | 12.9651 | 0.8169 | 258.561 | 401 | 279 | 122 | 196 | 200 |
22 | Born Power Index | 0.67082 | 0.49495 | 13.1859 | 1.3675 | 268.773 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 196 | 200 |
23 | Dunkel Index | 0.66833 | 0.49242 | 13.1188 | 1.2242 | 262.208 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 195 | 201 |
24 | System Median | 0.67830 | 0.49239 | 12.8062 | 0.7864 | 251.569 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 200 |
25 | Pigskin Index | 0.67082 | 0.49046 | 13.0448 | 0.9206 | 261.144 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 180 | 187 |
26 | Payne Predict | 0.70823 | 0.48737 | 13.0865 | 0.5846 | 265.448 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 193 | 203 |
27 | Sagarin Recent | 0.68329 | 0.48485 | 12.9943 | 0.5106 | 260.414 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 192 | 204 |
28 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.72818 | 0.48485 | 13.3821 | 1.3665 | 279.104 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 192 | 204 |
29 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.68579 | 0.48454 | 13.1075 | 1.0182 | 262.925 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 188 | 200 |
30 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71072 | 0.48438 | 13.1521 | 0.5686 | 266.275 | 401 | 285 | 116 | 186 | 198 |
31 | Donchess Inference | 0.69825 | 0.48329 | 13.1048 | 0.7736 | 262.332 | 401 | 280 | 121 | 188 | 201 |
32 | Howell | 0.71679 | 0.48168 | 13.1240 | 0.4676 | 262.054 | 399 | 286 | 113 | 184 | 198 |
33 | Talisman Red | 0.67839 | 0.48092 | 13.1038 | 0.3416 | 265.505 | 398 | 270 | 128 | 189 | 204 |
34 | Loudsound.org | 0.68367 | 0.47606 | 13.6862 | -1.9923 | 281.273 | 392 | 268 | 124 | 179 | 197 |
35 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
36 | Edward Kambour | 0.69327 | 0.47222 | 12.9581 | 0.6587 | 255.632 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 187 | 209 |
37 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68329 | 0.47222 | 13.2498 | 0.6096 | 268.991 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 187 | 209 |
38 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69250 | 0.47089 | 13.1356 | 0.7023 | 264.443 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 186 | 209 |
39 | ESPN FPI | 0.69077 | 0.47089 | 12.8620 | 1.3393 | 258.710 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 186 | 209 |
40 | Massey Consensus | 0.72818 | 0.47089 | 13.4266 | 1.3417 | 277.534 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 186 | 209 |
41 | Massey Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.46970 | 13.1850 | 0.4600 | 263.324 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 186 | 210 |
42 | Payne W/L | 0.71571 | 0.46954 | 13.8109 | -0.1546 | 292.611 | 401 | 287 | 114 | 185 | 209 |
43 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.65337 | 0.46875 | 14.3604 | 0.9542 | 316.503 | 401 | 262 | 139 | 180 | 204 |
44 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.46717 | 13.2347 | 0.0998 | 269.784 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 185 | 211 |
45 | David Harville | 0.69077 | 0.46582 | 12.9305 | 0.4803 | 255.005 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 184 | 211 |
46 | Dokter Entropy | 0.69250 | 0.46565 | 12.9633 | 1.0217 | 262.196 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 183 | 210 |
47 | Line (updated) | 0.71322 | 0.46259 | 12.5100 | 0.6072 | 243.551 | 401 | 286 | 115 | 68 | 79 |
48 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67581 | 0.46212 | 12.9945 | 0.4566 | 256.537 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 183 | 213 |
49 | Billingsley | 0.72070 | 0.46212 | 13.6496 | 0.6766 | 292.054 | 401 | 289 | 112 | 183 | 213 |
50 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.70075 | 0.46000 | 12.5499 | 0.6621 | 244.089 | 401 | 281 | 120 | 92 | 108 |
51 | Sagarin Points | 0.68828 | 0.45316 | 13.0082 | 0.4445 | 257.926 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 179 | 216 |
52 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.68329 | 0.43687 | 12.9094 | 0.4542 | 253.158 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 173 | 223 |
53 | Line (Midweek) | 0.69077 | | 12.5499 | 0.6471 | 244.872 | 401 | 277 | 124 | | |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases