Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
2Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
3Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
4Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
5Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
6Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
7Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
8Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
9Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
10Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
11Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
12Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
13Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
14System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
15Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
16Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
17Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
18Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
19Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
20Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
21Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
22Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
23Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
24PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
25Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
26ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
27Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
28Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
29Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
30NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
31Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
32Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
33Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
34System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
35Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
36Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
37Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
38Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
39Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
40Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
41Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
42Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
43PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
44Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
45Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
46NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
47FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
48Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
49Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
50ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
51CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
52Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
53MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
54PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
55Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
56DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
57Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
58Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
59ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
60Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
61Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
62Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
63Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
64Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
65Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
66CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
67Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
68Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
69Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
70DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
71Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
72Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases